Recession regression

The man's face is drawn as he faces a flock of clamouring journalists. One of them asks him if he is prepared for Britain to go into a bleak recession. "We will do what is necessary to bring inflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  down to target," he responds gravely.

On Thursday, the Bank of EnglandThe central bank of the UK. Like other central banks around the world, it tries to stabilise the economy by keeping down inflation and offering loans to struggling banks. announced that interest ratesThe interest rate tells you how high the cost of borrowing is, or how high the reward for saving is. If it is more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow, they will spend less and inflation will fall.  would be lifted for the thirteenth consecutive time - to 5% - in a bid to combat this persistent inflation. This raise significantly outpaces other world economies, which have mostly either kept their interest rates stable or raised them by much smaller margins.¹

And although many expected interest rates to rise, few predicted that the rise would be so rapid. The Bank of England's Governor, Andrew Bailey, broke one of the key rules articulated by its former head Mervyn King: "Our ambition at the bank of England is to be boring."

It shows that inflation is a tougher nut to crack than many had expected. New data estimates that inflation of food prices is almost the highest level in more than 45 years. And though decreases in the rate of inflation were projected after a peak of 11.1% last year, figures from last month quashed these hopes.

Increased interest rates will cast a dark shadow over the coming season. Many think they will incentivise saving and disincentivise spending, almost certainly leading to an economic slump even as they curb rises in inflation. And Britain, with its weak productivity and shortage of workers, is already a toxic cocktail for recessionA period of economic decline. A recession occurs when a country's Gross Domestic Product falls for six months in a row. .

It will not come as a surprise. Recent polls have shown that a majority of the public thinks that the UK is already in a recession, whilst two-thirds of people showed record pessimism about key economic measures like inflation and interest rates.

But it is bound to exacerbate tensions in an already-bleak economic climate. Household living standards may fall, whilst child poverty and debt will likely rise. Meanwhile, Britain's Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. government seems on track to fall short of its promises of tax cuts and high rates of economic growth.

Some say we must weather the bad to get to the good. One economist, who advises the Chancellor of the ExchequerThe chancellor of the Exchequer, often just called the chancellor, is the UK government's chief finance minister. They are in charge of taxation and government spending and borrowing. Jeremy Hunt, stated that "creating a recession" is the only way to effectively curb inflation, as it will prompt companies to keep both prices and salaries stable.

But for others, our reliance on the Bank of England to raise interest rates is a sign of just how desperate we are. Interest rates are often described as a "blunt instrument" - a tool which may knock down inflation, but does nothing to tackle its root causes and often brings instability in its wake.

Critics also say that these changes benefit nobody. Banks have been quick to increase people's borrowing rates, but are more reluctant to offer better interest for savers.

And even for those lucky enough to save, the real value of their money is decreasing day by day as measly savers' rates fall far short of 8.7% inflation. Meanwhile, banks are recording rapidly increasing profit margins at the expense of consumers.

Yes: This is the first stage in bringing the cost of living crisis to an end. We need to weather the higher interest rates in order to curb inflation, which will lay the basis for a new forthcoming period of economic growth.

No: We have rarely experienced such bleak economic conditions in recent history. This should be seen as a low point, with spiralling child poverty, food poverty and debt hitting ordinary people hard whilst large companies make even larger profit margins.

Or... Nothing lasts forever. To an extent, we are dependent on the global economy and cannot recover fully until there are more favourable conditions elsewhere. But despite recent shocks, stability is in sight.