Yevgeny PrigozhinA Russian oligarch and leader of the Wagner Group, a group of mercenary soldiers. He launched a failed coup against Russian president Vladimir Putin in June 2023. was always going to go out with a bang. But few expected such spectacular fireworks. On Wednesday night, the Russian mercenaryProfessional soldiers who often fight for foreign armies. leader was among 10 reported dead after a plane crashed into a field north of Moscow.

Exactly two months before, Prigozhin had led a coup against Russian president Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.. His Wagner GroupA band of mercenaries operating around the world who have been accused of torture and other war crimes. had captured the major city Rostov-on-Don and marched on Moscow. But before his army reached the capital, Prigozhin made a deal and turned around.

Although Putin declared him a traitor, Prigozhin continued to lead his group. On Tuesday, a social media video showed him in what appeared to be an African desert. The next day, images emerged of a burning wreckage. Russian state TV Rossiya24 claimed it was Prigozhin's private jet.

The theories have already piled up, like a John le CarreFamous for spy novels such as Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and The Spy Who Came in From the Cold, which were partially based on his experiences working for Britain's secret services. novel. Many blame Putin. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak calls the crash "a signal from Putin to Russia's elites". 

There is debate over what exactly caused the crash. Was it Russian Army missiles? Or a bomb hidden inside a wine crate? Others believe that Prigozhin may have not been on the plane at all. He might even have orchestrated the crash himself, to cover his escape. It is not the first time he has been declared dead only to reappear alive.

Regardless of the truth, Putin has won - for now. But his victory might be short-lived. The chances of a new leader seem higher than ever. 

Prigozhin's Wagner subordinates have issued a stark warning to the president: "If the information about Prigozhin's death is confirmed, we will organise a second March of Justice on Moscow!" In June, Wagner was stopped by negotiation. Set on revenge, they might prove unstoppable.

Some commentators claim that the crash is a sign that Putin is weakening - and heading towards his own grisly end. According to politics expert Brian Klaas, "short-term displays of brutal strength ensure long-term weakness." Putin's allies might start to wonder whether they too could be killed off - and decide to topple him before he turns on them.

Russia is facing economic collapse. This could cause the wealthy to turn on Putin. According to Russia investigator Christo Grozev: "It is unpalatable for the rest of the elite to live in a North KoreaA country formed in 1945 when Japanese-occupied Korea was split between a Communist government in the north and a capitalist one in the south. Today it is extremely reclusive, and hostile to the West. 2.1 with their bank accounts frozen."

Not everyone is convinced that Putin's time is up. Mysterious deaths are a common feature of his regime. His enemies have died in plane and helicopter crashes before.

The crash might even strengthen Putin. His most formidable threat has been removed. The Wagner group might fall into line under his command. As Russia expert Brian Whitmore says: "To preserve the regime, Putin needs to preserve fear". After this, other challengers might be too scared to enter the ring. 

Even if Putin is brought down, any new leader will likely come from his inner circle, the people who have supported his rule until now. Someone ruthless enough to backstab their own leader might be even worse.

Yes: Russia's economy is collapsing. Its army is gridlocked. ConscriptsSomeone who is called up to join the army without a choice. are being mowed down. And Putin has angered the most dangerous men in his empire. We can count down the days until his fall.

No: Putin has killed before and will kill again. The Russian elite owe their wealth and power to him - and are too scared to risk it. If he falls, they might also. Far better to remain in the background.

Or... Putin faces threats from all sides. But he is just the face of an evil regime. It does not ultimately matter if he is cut down. Whoever replaces him will be in his mould - and likely at least as bad.