Yevgeny PrigozhinA Russian oligarch and leader of the Wagner Group, a group of mercenary soldiers. He launched a failed coup against Russian president Vladimir Putin in June 2023. was always going to go out with a bang. On Wednesday night, the Russian mercenaryProfessional soldiers who often fight for foreign armies. leader was among 10 reported dead after a plane crashed into a field north of MoscowThe capital city of Russia. .

Two months ago, Prigozhin led a coupWhen an individual or group takes control of government by illegal means, including by violence. against Russian president Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.. His Wagner GroupA band of mercenaries operating around the world who have been accused of torture and other war crimes. had captured a major city and marched on Moscow. But Prigozhin made a deal and turned around.

On Tuesday, a social media video showed him in what appeared to be an African desert. The next day, images emerged of a burning wreck. Russian state TV Rossiya24 claimed it was Prigozhin's private jet.

Many blame Putin. But there is debate over what exactly caused the crash. Was it Russian Army missiles? Or a bomb hidden inside a wine crate? Others believe that Prigozhin may have not been on the plane at all.

Whatever the truth, Putin has won - for now. But his victory might be short-lived. The chances of a new leader seem higher than ever. 

Prigozhin's Wagner soldiers have issued a threat to the president: "If the information about Prigozhin's death is confirmed, we will organise a second March of Justice on Moscow!" In June, they almost took the capital. Set on revenge, they might prove unstoppable.

Some claim that the crash is a sign that Putin is heading towards his own end. According to politics expert Brian Klaas, "short-term displays of brutal strength ensure long-term weakness". Putin's alliesAn ally is someone that aligns with and supports a cause with another individual or group of people. might decide to topple him before he turns on them.

Others think the crash might make Putin stronger. His biggest rival has been removed. Other enemies might be too scared. Russia expert Brian Whitmore says: "To preserve the regime, Putin needs to preserve fear".

Even if Putin falls, any new leader will likely come from his inner circle, with similar values. And someone ruthless enough to backstab their own leader might be even worse.

Yes: Russia's economy is falling. Its soldiers are being mowed down. And Putin has angered the most dangerous group in his empire. We can count down the days until his fall.

No: Putin has killed before and will kill again. The Russian elite owe their wealth and power to him - and are too scared to risk it. If he falls, they might also. Far better to remain in the background.

Or... Putin faces threats from all sides. But he is just the face of an evil regime. It does not really matter if he is cut down. Whoever replaces him will be in his mould - and likely at least as bad.