Last Friday, US president Joe Biden met British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer in the White HouseThe official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains.. Their subject was the war in Ukraine. And their meeting could change the nature of the conflict - and the world that it creates.

The Times reports: "In a significant shift in tone, Starmer and Biden are expected to hold talks on how to bring PutinVladimir Putin - Russia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.'s invasion of Ukraine to an end." Following the White House encounter, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will present his "victory plan" to the UNUnited Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security. general assembly. 

One outcome might be to meet fire with fire. Following Russia's purchase of missiles from Iran, Biden and Starmer are expected to approve the use of British Storm Shadow missiles to strike at Russian military targets - although discussions were still taking place on Sunday.

Putin has responded: "This will mean that NATOThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. countries are at war with Russia... we will make appropriate decisions in response." His measured words hide a threat: stop helping Ukraine, or we will attack you. The logical end point of his statement would be World War Three.

Yet some think that Putin is bluffing. The KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel. is unlikely to want to plunge the world into nuclear apocalypseA Christian name for the end of the world. Descended from a Greek word meaning uncover, it was used to describe the Biblical book of Revelation.. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said: "I would not attach excessive importance to the latest statements from president Putin. They rather show the difficult situation the Russians have on the front." 

Indeed, some wonder if the country is actually on the way to collapse. 

The army is struggling. Reports have claimed that Russia's military is flagging. It lost 270 troops, 73 artilleryWeapons., 121 vehicles and one jet in a single day of fighting last week.¹

The war has left Russia isolated. Many countries have stopped buying Russian gas, which until recently contributed about 10% of the country's budget.² Now, according to economic forecaster Renaud Foucart, Russia's economy is almost entirely reliant on China.

This means that China can demand Russian products cheaply. Foucart writes: "This means that China is now in a position to demand anything from Russia." It also means that if China decides to pull its support, Russia could suffer economic devastation.³

The Russian Federation is less a country than an empireA group of countries or states ruled by a single power - sometimes a king or queen. . It spans 17.1 million km^2, almost twice as big as the United States, and houses 144.2 million people in 190 ethnic groups. It includes an autonomousHaving the freedom to control itself or its life. district, two federal cities, four autonomous regions, nine territories, 21 republics and 46 regions.  

Sustaining such an enormous state is difficult. Three areas in Russia - Chechnya, Tatarstan, and Sakha - attempted to obtain either independence or more freedom in the 1990s. War losses and a weakened economy could lead them to try again.

Yet the idea that Russia is falling apart might just be bluster too. The Russian army is far from collapse. It has begun a counter attack in KurskA city in western Russia. In 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise assault and took over parts of the region, as part of the Russia-Ukraine war which began in 2022. and bombarded the strategically important city of PokrovskA city in Donetsk Oblast (region) in eastern Ukraine. .⁴

Writing earlier this year, The Spectator's Sasha Lensky reported that "Russia looks in alarmingly robust condition, having mobilised its own military complex". Putin seems secure. Journalist Casey Michel writes: "There is little reason to think that Putin cannot continue for the foreseeable future". 

The economic picture is not all doom. At the end of last year, Moscow predicted 2.8% annual economic growth.⁵ For the vast majority of Russians, the war is something that happens far away.

Historian Alexander Etkind thinks the Russian Empire will collapse. But it might take a very long time. He wrote: "We must try to live to see it." Indeed, the fractiousIrritable or unruly. alliance of countries that support it might disintegrate first.

Is Russia collapsing?

Yes: Russia is an empire. Sustaining a continent-straddling state in a time of war and economic turmoil is simply impossible. Even the mightiest empires collapse: ask the PersiansSomeone from ancient or modern Persia, a once-dominant nation in west Asia in the area that is now mostly modern Iran. , the Romans and the British.

No: Putin remains in control of Russia. And Russia controls the initiative of the war. Russia's enemies have long hoped to see it crumble. But the country that has survived NapoleonThe French military commander and political leader who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led successful campaigns during the Revolutionary Wars., Hitler and the end of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. can survive this wear.

Or... The Russia we know today might not be long for the world. But states rarely say the same for a long time. It could collapse. Or it could shift, for better or worse, in a less dramatic manner. It is incredibly hard to grasp from outside.