Last Friday, US president Joe Biden met British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer in the White HouseThe official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains.. Their subject was the war in Ukraine.

Biden and Starmer are expected to approve the use of British Storm Shadow missiles to strike at Russian military targets - although in the UK, discussions were still taking place on Sunday.

Following the White House encounter, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will present his "victory plan" to the UNUnited Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security. general assembly. 

Putin has responded: "This will mean that NATOThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. countries are at war with Russia... we will make appropriate decisions in response." His words hide a threat: stop helping Ukraine, or we will attack you. The logical end point of his statement would be World War Three.

Yet some think that Putin is bluffing. Indeed, some wonder if Russia is actually on the way to collapse. 

The army is struggling. Reports have claimed that Russia's military is flagging It lost 270 troops, 73 artilleryWeapons., 121 vehicles and one jet in a single day of fighting last week.¹

The war has left Russia isolated. Many countries have stopped buying its gas.² Now, according to economic forecaster Renaud Foucart, Russia's economy is almost entirely reliant on China. If China decides to pull its support, Russia would suffer.³

The Russian Federation is less a country than an empireA group of countries or states ruled by a single power - sometimes a king or queen. . It spans 17.1 million km², almost twice as big as the United States, and houses 144.2 million people in 190 ethnic groups. Keeping such a huge state together is difficult. Empires tend towards collapse.

Yet the idea that Russia is falling apart might itself be bluster. The Russian army is far from collapse. It has begun a counter attack in KurskA city in western Russia. In 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise assault and took over parts of the region, as part of the Russia-Ukraine war which began in 2022. and bombarded the strategically important city of PokrovskA city in Donetsk Oblast (region) in eastern Ukraine. .⁴

The economic picture is not all bad. At the end of last year, Moscow predicted 2.8% annual economic growth.⁵ For many Russians, the war is something that happens far away.

Historian Alexander Etkind thinks the Russian Empire will collapse. But it might take a very long time. He wrote: "We must try to live to see it."

Is Russia collapsing?

Yes: Russia is an empire. Sustaining a continent-straddling state in a time of war and economic hardship is simply impossible. Even the mightiest empires collapse: ask the PersiansSomeone from ancient or modern Persia, a once-dominant nation in west Asia in the area that is now mostly modern Iran. , the Romans and the British.

No: Putin remains in control of Russia. And Russia controls the initiative of the war. Russia's enemies have long hoped to see it crumble. But the country that has survived NapoleonThe French military commander and political leader who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led successful campaigns during the Revolutionary Wars., Hitler and the end of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. can survive this wear.

Or... The Russia we know today might not be long for the world. But states rarely say the same for a long time. It could collapse. Or it could shift, or better or worse, in a less dramatic manner. It is incredibly hard to grasp from outside.