It was mid-morning on Palm SundayThe Christian feast falling on the Sunday before Easter. It celebrates Christ's entry into Jerusalem. , one of the most important events in the Christian calendar. People in the Ukrainian city of SumyA city in northeastern Ukraine, with a population of 256,000. were out and about, enjoying what they hoped would be a brief respite from the war that has ravaged their country.

Instead, carnage. Two Russian missiles struck the city centre, claiming 34 lives and injuring 117 others, 15 of them children.¹

It was the deadliest attack on civiliansPeople who are not in the army or the police. in at least two years, in the context of a war in which the Russians have repeatedly struck non-military targets.

Condemnation rolled in from across Europe. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk baptised the day "Bloody Palm Sunday", while the president of the European CommissionThe executive body of the EU, responsible for suggesting new EU laws and overseeing their implementation. , Ursula von der Leyen, called it "barbaric". All European leaders stressed that Russia was the sole aggressor in the war on Ukraine.

Some experts, however, think that what they will not acknowledge is that Ukraine is no longer the war's sole defender. Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West., they say, is really at war with the whole continent.

Additionally, they say, in spite of Donald Trump's overturesA communication made to offer something. , the Russian president shows no inclination to end this war. If anything he is expanding it, bringing in North KoreanFrom North Korea, a country formed in 1945 when Japanese-occupied Korea was split between a Communist government in the north and a capitalist one in the south. Today it is extremely reclusive, and hostile to the West. troops and Chinese volunteers.² Europe will thus be fighting for some time yet to come - without even realising it.

No-one can say the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a bolt from the blue. Almost since the dissolution of the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991., Russia has been seeking to re-establish its control of the countries on its borders that once formed part of the sprawling SovietRelating to the Soviet Union, a powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. state.

Since 1990 it has occupied parts of MoldovaAn Eastern European country with a population of 2.5 million. It is a former Soviet republic. . From 1994 it fought to prevent ChechnyaA republic of Russia situated in the North Caucasus. It is home to indigenous Chechens, mostly of Muslim faith. from gaining its independence, finally subjugating it in 2009.

In 2008 it invaded GeorgiaA state in the southern USA. Also a country at the intersection of Europe and Asia. , 20% of which it still occupies to this day. And its first invasion of Ukraine was just six years later, resulting in the seizure and illegal annexation of CrimeaA peninsula in southern Ukraine that was seized by Russian forces in 2014 and annexed to the larger country..

In those countries it did not control directly, such as BelarusBelarus is an eastern European state that is a close ally of Russia. Run by Alexander Lukashenko, it is known as "the last dictatorship in Europe"., it has maintained repressive puppet regimes that do its bidding.

Many other eastern European democracies were once under Russian rule, such as the BalticsThe three countries on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. . And it counted Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria in its sphere of influence as well.

Many experts believe Russia poses a direct military threat to all these countries. Ukraine may be simply the first stage in an invasion of all of eastern Europe.

At the same time, Putin is looking to weaken western European countries to prevent any unified European response.

He is supporting isolationistPreferring the policy of remaining separate from the affairs of other countries. right-wing parties that either tolerate or outright endorse his aggression. The number of Russian attacks on targets across Europe, including cyberattacks and direct acts of sabotage on critical infrastructureThe basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going., has nearly tripled in the last two years.³

Now Trump's return to power has gifted Putin both a president with no interest in the future of Europe, and an emergent world order in which superpowers may redraw borders as they please.

Is Europe already at war?

Yes: For three decades Europe has been denying the obvious: Russia will not rest until it regains the power it had in the last century. Now the whole continent is under threat.

No: Putin's aims are quite clear: he wants to carve out a sphere of influence on Russia's borders. That is repugnant in itself, but it does not amount to a full-scale war on the whole of Europe.

Or... It may be that Putin does not pose a direct threat to western Europe, but it should still treat an attack on one European country as an attack on them all. Only if Europe unifies will it be able to survive our new geopolitics.

Palm Sunday - The Christian feast falling on the Sunday before Easter. It celebrates Christ's entry into Jerusalem.

Sumy - A city in northeastern Ukraine, with a population of 256,000.

Civilians - People who are not in the army or the police.

European Commission - The executive body of the EU, responsible for suggesting new EU laws and overseeing their implementation.

Vladimir Putin - Russia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.

Overtures - A communication made to offer something.

North Korean - From North Korea, a country formed in 1945 when Japanese-occupied Korea was split between a Communist government in the north and a capitalist one in the south. Today it is extremely reclusive, and hostile to the West.

USSR - The United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991.

Soviet - Relating to the Soviet Union, a powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991.

Moldova - An Eastern European country with a population of 2.5 million. It is a former Soviet republic.

Chechnya - A republic of Russia situated in the North Caucasus. It is home to indigenous Chechens, mostly of Muslim faith.

Georgia - A state in the southern USA. Also a country at the intersection of Europe and Asia.

Crimea - A peninsula in southern Ukraine that was seized by Russian forces in 2014 and annexed to the larger country.

Belarus - Belarus is an eastern European state that is a close ally of Russia. Run by Alexander Lukashenko, it is known as "the last dictatorship in Europe".

Baltics - The three countries on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Isolationist - Preferring the policy of remaining separate from the affairs of other countries.

Infrastructure - The basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going.