His opponents meet grisly ends, he sends dissidentsPeople who publicly disagree with or criticise an authority or government, especially an oppressive one. to SiberiaA northern region of Russia, known for its harsh winters. It has a long history as a place of exile for criminals and political prisoners. and he has aggressively occupied territories in three countries. He is never far from threatening nuclear apocalypseA Christian name for the end of the world. Descended from a Greek word meaning uncover, it was used to describe the Biblical book of Revelation.. Many call him the most dangerous man of our times.

Could Putin's rule be cut short? Until now, it has seemed a distant idea. But some say it is now a real possibility.

Smutniy PutinVladimir Putin - Russia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.

Amid a recent coup led by his former allyA country that has agreed to support another one. Yevgeny PrigozhinA Russian oligarch and leader of the Wagner Group, a group of mercenary soldiers. He launched a failed coup against Russian president Vladimir Putin in June 2023. , Putin did not hesitate to draw parallels to Russia's Smutnoye vremya, known in English as "The Time of Troubles".

The Time of Troubles was a failed coupWhen an individual or group takes control of government by illegal means, including by violence. that took place in the early 1600s, when a pretenderSomebody who pretends to be something they are not. A pretender to the throne claims to be the rightful ruler of a nation. to the throne captured Moscow, but was murdered almost straight after. What followed was a miserable era of war which killed up to 1.2 million people.

For Russians, smuta represents an age-old superstitionA belief or practice that is not entirely based on facts or reality.: that failed insurrections are a warning sign that something very bad is about to happen. By evoking the period, Putin may even be predicting his own death - and Russia's descent into total anarchyA situation in which there are no rulers. The term can be used to describe complete political chaos or mob rule, but those who call themselves anarchists generally believe in mutual aid and cooperation, not a war of all-against-all..

Soviet Successor

Vladimir Lenin died of a stroke. Joseph Stalin died of a haemorrhage. Leonid Brezhnev died of a heart attack. Yuri Andropov died of kidney failure. Konstantin Chernenko died of emphysemaA lung condition that makes it difficult to breathe. .

All of the above were one-time leaders of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. . And you may notice a pattern. The majority of Soviet rulers only lost power when they died. Some experts think that Putin's death is the only thing that will end his reign.

Ruble Revolution

The former oligarchAfter the collapse of the Soviet Union, most of the country's economy fell into the hands of corrupt businessmen who became known as oligarchs. Mikhail Khodorkovsky once asserted that the man with the rifle, a figure that had long symbolised the revolution of ordinary people, had been replaced by the man with the rubleThe Russian currency. It was the first currency in Europe to be decimalised, in 1704..¹

He meant that power in Russia was in the hands of its corrupt oligarchs who had risen to power after the fall of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. . Some think Putin's billionaire buddies might be the next to stab him in the back, threatened by Russia's economic sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade..

Yes: There are many scenarios by which Putin could be overthrown. His war in Ukraine has reached a boiling point and he is resorting to desperate measures to seem in control. We are seeing the last gasps of a drowning man.

No: History is rarely as dramatic and explosive as we imagine. As much as people like to fantasise about uprisings, Putin has been in power for more than two decades, and he will not be easy to unseat.

Or... This may not be the moment that Putin is deposed, but it will feature in the history books as one of the factors in his demise. Big historical events are often formed of a hundred different events and facts that we can only put together in hindsight.