"The president appeared meandering, confused, and extremely frail. Biden's performance was at times almost physically uncomfortable to watch and will greatly amplify the calls for him to step aside." Such is this morning's verdict from one of America's most respected political commentators.

A head-to-head presidential debate has never happened so early in a campaign.¹ It made 5 November seem very soon indeed.²

The November presidential election is of world-shaking importance. The USA is the richest and most powerful country on Earth. Its president is the unofficial Leader of the Free WorldTermed coined by former US President George Bush to describe his country. During the Cold War, the "Free World" was used to refer to the West, as opposed to the Soviet Bloc., wielding awesome power and influence. And this time, many believe the future of American democracyA system of government based on the idea of rule by the people. is at stake.

In the blue corner is the incumbent Biden, a moderate DemocratA member of the Democratic party, the left-leaning US political party. who has spent the past three and a half years focused on infrastructure and economic reforms. Aged 81, he is the oldest president in US history.³

In the red corner stands the Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. candidate Trump, the right-wingSometimes referred to as 'conservative', this is a range of political beliefs that emphasise the value of tradition, individual freedom and responsibility, low taxes and a hands-off approach to government. populistThe term comes from the People's Party, which operated in the USA in the 1890s. Now, it is often used to refer to any movement that makes a distinction between the "people" and the corrupt "establishment". and convicted felonIn the USA, somebody who has committed a felony - a crime that is usually punished with a prison sentence of more than one year or the death sentence. who served as president between 2016 and 2020. The 78-year old Trump's first term ended in calamity after a far-right mob invaded the US CapitolThe building in Washington DC where the US Congress meets. It was named after the Capitoline Hill in Rome. to stop Biden being named president.⁴ 

Both have a very different vision for America. Biden promises more of the same. He would increase green energy production to make the US more self-sufficient. He would make abortion a federalIn the USA laws are made both by individual states and the federal government, which governs all states together. right. And he would continue America's alliances with other western countries.

Trump has promised mass deportations of illegal immigrants and a new Muslim banA serious of executive orders made in the USA during Donald Trump's time as president, banning travel from several countries with a high Muslim population. . He would fire government officials who obstruct him. He will apply tariffsA form of tax on imports. Each product will have a different tariff - for some EU dairy products, such as French cheese, tariffs in the UK will be more than 30%. to foreign goods, targeting in particular those from China. And he would ramp up oil drilling.

Both candidates are historically unpopular.⁵ The most recent New York Times poll finds 46% of Americans plan to vote for Trump while 45% want to vote for Biden. But this could easily change over the bruising five-month campaign. 

But other measures favour Biden. A poll of "double-haters" - those who deeply dislike both candidates - found Biden 11 points ahead. Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, polls predicted a Republican tsunamiA Japanese word describing a succession of waves caused when an earthquake or volcano displaces a large body of water. that would rout Biden's Democratic party. In the event the Democrats had their best midterm results in decades.

The result of the election will have effects all over the world. Trump is idolised by far-rightA range of ideologies that emphasise social order, racial purity and the elimination of opponents. politicians everywhere. His victory would embolden them. His dislike of democratic institutions - he has claimed he will be a dictator on "day one" - could inspire his acolytesOne who helps or follows another, especially in a religious context of those assisting a priest. . He plans to exit the Paris Climate AccordsThe Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, signed in 2015., which might lead other right-wing governments to do the same. 

It would also affect Western security. The US leads Nato, a defence alliance of democratic countries. In his first term Trump claimed Nato was too expensive. A second term Trump might abolish it altogether, leaving European countries undefended against Russia. 

Indeed, Trump has often praised Russian president Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.. His team has suggested forcing Ukraine to cede part of its land to Russia in return for weapons to defend the rest. 

Was there a winner?

Yes: Trump was simply stronger, bigger, louder, more brutal. American voters are yearning for a tough leader to lead them out of their current woes. This will shift the dial in his favour.

No: Americans have already made up their minds. Trump as always came across as angry and crazy. Biden as always came across as frail, but reasonable and decent. This will not change any minds.

Or... The real winner was Xi Jinping. China wants to take over America's leadership of the world. An American stumbling into chaos under a felon or a geriatric would be the perfect opportunity.

Free world - Termed coined by former US President George Bush to describe his country. During the Cold War, the "Free World" was used to refer to the West, as opposed to the Soviet Bloc.

Democracy - A system of government based on the idea of rule by the people.

Democrat - A member of the Democratic party, the left-leaning US political party.

Republican Party - Also known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum.

Right-wing - Sometimes referred to as 'conservative', this is a range of political beliefs that emphasise the value of tradition, individual freedom and responsibility, low taxes and a hands-off approach to government.

Populist - The term comes from the People's Party, which operated in the USA in the 1890s. Now, it is often used to refer to any movement that makes a distinction between the "people" and the corrupt "establishment".

Felon - In the USA, somebody who has committed a felony - a crime that is usually punished with a prison sentence of more than one year or the death sentence.

US Capitol - The building in Washington DC where the US Congress meets. It was named after the Capitoline Hill in Rome.

Federal - In the USA laws are made both by individual states and the federal government, which governs all states together.

Muslim ban - A serious of executive orders made in the USA during Donald Trump's time as president, banning travel from several countries with a high Muslim population.

Tariffs - A form of tax on imports. Each product will have a different tariff - for some EU dairy products, such as French cheese, tariffs in the UK will be more than 30%.

Tsunami - A Japanese word describing a succession of waves caused when an earthquake or volcano displaces a large body of water.

Far-right - A range of ideologies that emphasise social order, racial purity and the elimination of opponents.

Acolytes - One who helps or follows another, especially in a religious context of those assisting a priest.

Paris Climate Accords - The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, signed in 2015.

Vladimir Putin - Russia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.