Putin his foot in it

No need for an exit pollAn opinion poll released on election night itself, based on responses from voters emerging from polling stations. They are generally the most accurate opinion polls.: the Russian presidential election this year was hardly in doubt. Perhaps the only slight surprise was Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.'s apparent modesty: he claimed just 87% of the vote.¹

At the start of the war in Ukraine, observers in the West were predicting that it was only a matter of time before Putin got his comeuppance, via a military coupWhen an individual or group takes control of government by illegal means, including by violence., a popular uprising or Alexei NavalnyA well-known opposition leader in Russia and critic of Vladimir Putin, who died in prison in 2024 at the age of 47. .

Now, two years, one failed coup and a death in an Arctic prison later, Putin is still there, in control, fixing big election victories.

For some, this has more troubling implications. They say it shows dictatorshipsA form of government in which one person possesses all the power without any limits. , not democraciesCountries which have a system of government based on the idea of rule by the people., might own the future.

The world's powerful autocraciesCountries run by one person or small group with complete power. , like Russia and China, are only strengthening their grip. Meanwhile, democracy still seems to be flailing.

The world's biggest democracy, India, is sliding into authoritarianismA form of government in which individual freedoms are severely limited by government power. Examples include Nazi Germany, Khmer Rogue Cambodia and contemporary China..³

This, they argue, is because a dictator can take the long view. Putin has been in power for 24 years now. That lets him act strategically. A democratic leader is only ever looking ahead four or five years.

But others say this is rarely true. Dictators, they say, cannot trust anyone, and they end up isolating themselves. Meanwhile, advisers know that if they cross their paranoidBelieving, often with no solid basis, that you are being harassed, betrayed or persecuted by others. leader they could be exiled, imprisoned or even killed.

That means they have no incentive to speak truth to power, and power is unable to hear them anyway.

In a democracy, if a large part of the population is angry then the government has to respond.

Has Putin fallen into a trap?

Yes: History suggests that autocratic rule is not sustainable in the long term. Dictators get more and more removed from reality until their own decisions catch up with them.

No: Observers have been predicting Putin's demise for years, and yet he is still there. And while many dictatorships have been cut short in recent years, democracies are not looking too healthy either.

Or... Putin is a symptom of Russia's problems, not their cause. Anyone else would be pursuing the same policies. The key is to change Russia's political culture, not just its leader.