The sense of anticipation was enormous. Outside Victor Verster Prison near Cape TownA port city on South Africa's southwest coast, with a population of 4.6 million., the world's press waited. Finally Nelson MandelaA South African anti-apartheid activist who spent 27 years in jail before becoming president. emerged and raised a fist in triumph. On that day, 11 February 1990, he became a free man for the first time in 27 years.

As a leader of the African National Congress (ANC), which led the resistance to South Africa's apartheidA system of legally-enshrined racial discrimination and oppression which existed in South Africa from 1948 until the 1990s. It denied non-white South Africans basic human rights. regime, Mandela had been accused of sabotage and sentenced to life imprisonment.

But in 1989 South Africa acquired a new president, FW de Klerk, who believed that the country could descend into civil war unless apartheid ended. He decided that Mandela must be freed.

Over the following years, de Klerk's government and the ANC negotiated the end of apartheid. In 1994, Mandela was elected as president of South Africa.

Many people feared that a bloodbath would follow, with Black people taking revenge on their White oppressors. But Mandela preached a message of reconciliation. South Africa became known as "the Rainbow Nation" where people of every kind were welcome. Its example revived hope for the whole continent.

Thirty years later, the picture is very different. In the words of The Observer's Steve Bloomfield, it is "the most unequal country in the world and among the most dangerous...

"Basic public services are falling apart. In many parts of the country there is no clean water, while rolling power cuts have become a regular feature of daily life."

For many, the ANC is a byword for corruptionWhen someone abuses their power for personal gain. It often involves bribery. , which became endemicCommon to a particular place or community. after Jacob Zuma's election as president in 2009. By the time he was forced out in 2018, huge amounts of the government's money had been embezzledStealing or misappropriating money that you are in charge of, for example from where you work. , leaving nearly every part of it bankrupt.

Zuma's successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has struggled to cope with the chaotic situation he inherited.

Though he hopes to lead the ANC to victory in this election, opinion polls indicate that it could receive less than 50% of the vote.¹

Writing in the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman argues that what happens in South Africa matters for everybody. Too many African countries have become dictatorships or slid into civil war, causing a growing refugee crisis. If South Africa goes the same way, he says, "cynicism about the future of the African continent will grow in the rest of the world."

Is the country on the brink of collapse?

Yes: It has a huge budget deficit and 10% of GDPShort for Gross Domestic Product, the measure of all the goods and services produced inside a country. is being lost to crime; 45% of South Africans are on benefits. Industry is crippled by power strikes. Many companies pay almost no tax.

No: It is still a vibrant nation full of enterprising people. It has a strong independent judiciary and a free press. There is no likelihood of a military coupWhen an individual or group takes control of government by illegal means, including by violence. such as other African countries have seen.

Or... It has already collapsed. Nobody in another developed country could imagine having to deal with the chaos that is part of South Africans' daily life. This election will simply bring more of the same.