Catastrophe city

"We heard that the dam had burst and the water had flooded the area," said the shocked survivor. "People were asleep and nobody was prepared. The whole family lives next door to each other - we are all neighbours. We have lost 30 people so far: 30 members of the same family. We haven't found anyone."

The flood hit the port city of Derna, with a population of 90,000, on Sunday night. By the end of Tuesday there were reported to be over 5,300 fatalities, while a further 8,000 people were injured or missing. Yesterday there were warnings that the final death toll could be over 20,000.

The torrent caused five bridges and many multi-storey buildings to collapse. Whole neighbourhoods were swept away. Many bodies were carried out to sea.

The area around Derna was also badly affected. In the town of Bayda, which recorded 16 inches of rainfall in six hours,¹ 50 people were reported dead. In Susa, 47 miles away, cars were left piled on top of each other. Many square miles of farmland have been left under water.

Derna is bisectedDivided into two parts. by a river, the WadiA valley or ravine that is dry unless there is exceptional rain. Used in some Arabic-speaking countries. Derna, which is normally dry at this time of year. But extraordinarily heavy rain from Storm Daniel filled it with water which swept away two dams designed to protect the city.

Storm Daniel had already brought chaos to Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, killing at least 27 people. It then became a "medicane" - a tropical-like cycloneAn area of low atmospheric pressure accompanied by strong winds. which occasionally forms over the Mediterranean - growing stronger as it drew energy from the abnormally warm water. Finally, it drifted south and pounded north-eastern Libya with rain.

The two ageing dams were poorly maintained because of the political chaos which has blighted the country since the fall of Colonel GaddafiMuammar Gaddafi ruled Libya from 1969 until his assassination in 2011. in 2011. The west of the country is ruled from TripoliThe capital city of Libya. by the official government, recognised by the UNUnited Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security.. Derna, in the east, is under the control of a rebel coalition.

Although the country has great oil wealth, neither side has been keen to spend money on infrastructureThe basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going.. And because Derna was occupied for several years by Islamic militants, it has been particularly neglected.

Last year an expert at Omar al Mukhtar University, Abdelwanees A R Ashoor, called for immediate work on the dams: "If a huge flood happens," he wrote, "the result will be catastrophic for the people of the wadi and the city." His advice appears to have gone unheeded.

According to Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrologyThe study of water on the Earth. at Reading University: "To be effective, flood forecasting systems need good data on forecast rainfall and river levels, a network of well-maintained measuring instruments on the ground, and a clear plan to get people out of harm's way.

"The tragic death toll in Libya from the catastrophic flooding that has decimated a city shows what can happen if any parts of this chain are not in place or don't work properly."

Is the climate crisis to blame?

Yes: The rain was completely abnormal - Bayda generally receives just half an inch in September and 21 inches a year - and an unusually hot summer made the ground too dry to absorb it.  

No: If the dams had been properly maintained the chances are that the flood would have been prevented. Responsibility lies with those who would rather wage war than attend to ordinary Libyans' needs.

Or... This is a reminder that, like all disasters, the climate crisis will be much worse for the poor than for the rich and powerful - yet those are the people making the decisions about how to handle it.