Swipe right, swipe left. Like, comment, match. For most people, dating apps are a harmless bit of fun. But, for the Japanese government, they are a national priority.

Japan's fertility rateThe average number of children born to women of a certain age. has fallen to a new low for the eighth year in a row. According to the Health Ministry, the average Japanese woman is now expected to have 1.2 children.¹ That number needs to be 2.1 for a population to keep replacing itself.

Separate data also shows that in 2023, just 474,717 people got married - out of a population of 125 million.² In Japan, it is rare for a woman to have a child outside of marriage, which is why politicians want more couples to tie the knot.

So the Tokyo Metropolitan government has launched a dating app. Joining is not easy: users have to show they are single, pass an interview and provide tax certificates to prove their income. They also have to sign a letter confirming that they want to get married.³  

According to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the birth rate is the "gravest crisis our country faces". As well as the dating app, his government plans to expand childcare and raise wages for young workers.

Japan is not alone. Fertility is falling across the developed world. No European country has an average birth rate above 2.1. In South Korea, it has dropped to 0.72.⁴

Demographics is the study of human populations. Many demographers worry about the consequences of falling birth rates. Modern economies rely on stable or growing populations to fill the workforce, pay taxes and fund public services. "The demographic winter is coming," says respected economist Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde.⁵

However, others argue that the crisis has been exaggerated. After all, the global fertility rate is still 2.3, with populations growing in many African countries.⁶ Moreover, the planet cannot support a limitless number of people, and some argue that declining populations will slow global warming.  

At present, countries like Britain have prevented population collapse with high levels of immigration. However, critics say that Western countries taking the best-educated people from the developing world is unfair. What is more, record immigration has caused a rise in far-rightA range of ideologies that emphasise social order, racial purity and the elimination of opponents. politics across Europe.

So far, government policies have also failed to slow falling birth rates. Even in Scandinavian countries, with the most generous childcare in the world, populations are shrinking. When faced with the cost of raising a family, many modern couples would prefer to remain childless. This is especially true for women, whose careers and earnings suffer from starting families.

Whether or not governments are able to reverse the decline, the current low birth rates are fixed into demographic projections. In Japan, twice as many people died as were born last year, and the population is expected to fall by one third. Japanese society is already adapting to fewer children. The rest of the world may not be far behind.

Are we running out of children?

Yes: Across the developed world, birth rates are falling. So far, government policies have failed to slow the decline. For places like Japan or South Korea, their populations may never recover.

No: The global population is still growing. Immigration is the solution for countries with low birth rates. In the long run, the planet will benefit from fewer people.

Or... As countries become more wealthy, educated and technologically advanced, the birth rates decline. In the long run, societies will have to adapt to smaller populations.

Fertility rate - The average number of children born to women of a certain age.

Far-right - A range of ideologies that emphasise social order, racial purity and the elimination of opponents.