Swipe right, swipe left. For most people, dating apps are a harmless bit of fun. But, for the Japanese government, they are a national priority.

JapanAn island country in East Asia, with a population of nearly 126 million.'s fertility rateThe average number of children born to women of a certain age. has fallen to a new low for the eighth year in a row. According to the Health Ministry, the average Japanese woman is now expected to have 1.2 children.¹ That number needs to be 2.1 for a population to keep replacing itself.

Separate data also shows that the number of marriages is falling. In Japan, it is rare for a woman to have a child outside of marriage, which is why politicians want more couples to tie the knotA saying meaning "to get married". .

The TokyoJapan's capital city. Metropolitan government has launched a dating app. Users have to sign a letter confirming they want to get married.³  

According to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the birth rate is the "gravest crisis our country faces". As well as the dating app, his government plans to expand childcare and raise wages for young workers.

Japan is not alone. Fertility is falling across the developed world. No European country has an average birth rate above 2.1. In South Korea, it has dropped to 0.72.⁴

Modern economies rely on stable or growing populations to fill the workforce, pay taxes, and fund public services. "The demographicThe qualities (e.g. age, sex, income) of a specific group of people or population. winter is coming," says respected economist Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde.⁵

However, others argue that the crisis has been exaggerated. After all, the global fertility rate is still 2.3, with populations growing in many African countries.⁶ What is more, declining populations will slow global warming.  

At present, countries like Britain have prevented population collapse with high levels of immigration. However, critics warn that record immigration has caused a rise in far-rightA range of ideologies that emphasise social order, racial purity and the elimination of opponents. politics across Europe.

So far, government policies have also failed to slow falling birth rates. When faced with the cost of raising a family, many modern couples would prefer to remain childless. This is especially true for women, whose careers suffer from starting families.

In Japan, twice as many people died as were born last year, and the population is expected to fall by one third. Japanese society is already adapting to fewer children. The rest of the world may not be far behind.

Are we running out of children?

Yes: Across the developed world, birth rates are falling. So far, government policies have failed to slow the decline. For places like Japan or South Korea, their populations may never recover.

No: The global population is still growing. Immigration is the solution for countries with low birth rates. In the long run, the planet will benefit from fewer people.

Or... As countries become more wealthy, educated and technologically advanced, the birth rates decline. In the long run, societies will have to adapt to smaller populations.