Little triggers

It has been an unhappy New Year for many in the Middle East. As the war between IsraelA country in the Middle East, and the only Jewish nation in the modern period. It is seen by Jews, Christians and Muslims as the Holy Land. and HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. rages on, other countries in the region risk being dragged into the conflict.

On Wednesday, a pair of bombs erupted in Kerman, IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. , at a memorial service for the general Qasem Soleimani.¹ At least 84 civilians died and almost 300 were injured in the attack, the deadliest terrorist incident in Iran since the Iranian RevolutionAlso known as the Islamic Revolution. A series of events in Iran that led to the Pahlavi dynasty being overthrown and an Islamic Republic being created in 1979. It shocked the world at the time. .² Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi accused Israel, warning it would pay "a regrettable price".

On Tuesday night, deputy Hamas chief Saleh al-Arouri was killed in an Israeli drone strike in Beirut, LebanonA small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million.. Al Arouri was in the safe territory of HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri., an Iran-backed, Lebanon-based militant group that supports Hamas. A Hezbollah spokesperson said the killing "will not go without a response".

In the Red SeaA seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean. To its right is Saudi Arabia, to its left the coast of north Africa., meanwhile, YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. 's HouthiThe Houthis represent a Shia Muslim minority, but have won support from other Yemenis dissatisfied with the government. rebels have fired ballistic missiles at cargo ships. It has also been claimed that they attacked a US warship with drones. 

An alliance of 12 countries led by the US have called the attacks "illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilising". They promised the Houthis would "bear the consequence" of further attacks. On Monday, the Houthi's Iranian allies announced they would send warships to the region.

But retaliation for these incidents is only one cause for worry. There are various factors which could flare out.

Yet there are also many reasons why the players might avoid a larger conflict.

Could America be drawn in?

Yes: America, at least under Biden, does not want to be drawn in. But if its soldiers in the Middle East are attacked, it will be hard not to leap in. And after that, it will be hard to get out again.

No: The recent assaults are par for the course in a volatile region. A larger war in the Middle East, writes expert Lina Khatib, "is in no-one's interest": even Hezbollah has declined to enter open war.

Or... America has numerous ships and troops in the region. US officials have visited Israel and the West BankA landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories. . America might not be actively fighting, but it has already butted its head into the war.