Antonio Guterres did not mince his words. "Now is the time for maximum restraint," said the UNUnited Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security.'s secretary-general after IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. 's missile and drone attack on Israel. "The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict... It's time to step back from the brink."¹

He was hoping to dissuade Israel from retaliation. President Biden has sent the same message. But the situation is a dangerous jigsaw of competing interests. These are the main ones.

Hamas. The PalestinianPalestine is an area of the eastern Mediterranean region, including the West Bank, Gaza Strip and parts of modern Israel. It has been fought over by Arab and Jewish national movements for many years. party which runs GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. launched a barbaric attack on Israel on 7 OctoberOn 7 October 2023, the Palestinian group Hamas, which controls Gaza, carried out a series of surprise attacks on Israel, killing more than 1,000 people and taking more than 200 hostages. . It hoped to provoke a brutal response which would bring wider support for the Palestinian cause - and has succeeded.

Israel. Since the 7 October attacks, Israel has believed that it is fighting for its very existence, and has devastated Gaza in its attempt to wipe out HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.. It feels surrounded by enemies, of which Iran is the greatest.

Iran. As a state devoted to Islam, Iran sees Israel as an infidelA derogatory term for somebody who has either no religion, or a different religion to the speaker. nation supported by an even worse one, the US. It dreams of destroying Israel and dominating the Middle EastThe lands around the east of the Mediterranean Sea and Arabia. .

The US. Israel's strongest ally, partly because many Americans have Jewish roots and partly because it sees Israel as a beacon of democracy. It is the only country that can really influence Israel, but President Netanyahu has shown himself unwilling to heedPay attention to. its wishes.

Hezbollah. A pro-Iranian group which forms part of LebanonA small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million.'s government. It has made rocket attacks on Israel and is a serious threat on its northern border.

The Houthis. Iranian-backed rebels in YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. who have been attacking ships in the Red SeaA seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean. To its right is Saudi Arabia, to its left the coast of north Africa.. They claim this is to support Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia. Iran's main regional rival. With strong ties to the US it is likely to push for peace.

Britain. It supports Israel, but has seen huge pro-Palestinian protests. These are bound to influence the government with elections looming.

What is particularly worrying is that many of the main players have an interest in keeping the conflict going to distract from their domestic troubles.

Netanyahu faces huge criticism for not preventing the 7 October attacks, failing to wipe out Hamas and leaving many of the Israelis taken hostage to their fate. He is likely to lose the next general election and once out of office could go to prison on corruptionWhen someone abuses their power for personal gain. It often involves bribery. charges.

Iran's supreme leader Ali Khameini heads a hugely unpopular regime which has faced - and bloodily suppressed - mass protests against its religious laws. He hopes to win back support by taking on Israel.

Hamas may lose the supporters it does have if they feel the devastation of Gaza was too high a price to pay for furthering the Palestinian cause. It could well lose control of Gaza altogether.

Hezbollah wants to distract from its part in bringing chaos and economic meltdown to Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the Houthis believe attacking shipping has brought great prestige in the Arab world. It helps the world forget that they started a civil war in which over 370,000 have died.²

Will there be a wider conflict? 

Yes: Israel is bound to retaliate; Iran will then respond, attacking both directly and through Hezbollah. The US and Britain will weigh in on Israel's side and the situation will spiral out of control.

No: Iran does not want a war, as it showed by giving a full warning of its attack on Israel. Nor does the US, which will put maximum pressure on Israel, or any other leading Middle Eastern country.

Or... Israel will retaliate, but not in a way which can be directly linked to it - for example, through untraceable cyber attacks - so Iran will have no obvious excuse for a military response.