New alliances

Yesterday morning, at NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. headquarters in BrusselsThe capital of Belgium., 30 flags fluttered in the high winds that often sweep in from the North Sea. By the afternoon, there was a 31st: bright white and brand new, the Finnish cross flies proudly between the French and Estonian tricolours.

The ScandinavianRegion of northern Europe, the word refers to the people and culture of Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. Other countries like Finland and Iceland are sometimes referred to by the same term. state, which borders Russia, applied to join Nato, the US-led military alliance, soon after the invasion of Ukraine last year.

The decision was not taken lightly. Finland knows it has put itself on a collision course with its vast neighbour. Russian ministers have already threatened to move nuclear weapons close to its borders.

But Finns already know how bad a neighbour Russia can be. In 1939, it took advantage of the chaos of World War Two to invade Finland, seeking to turn it into a puppet stateA state that is independent in law but in practice ruled by an outside power. .

The Finns inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces. Nonetheless, by March 1940, they had taken 70,000 casualties and were forced to give up 9% of their country's area.¹ Much of this territory remains in Russian hands.

For decades afterwards, Finland refused to take a side between the USA and Russia, fearing new clashes with Russia if it moved too close to Nato.

But Putin's war in Ukraine changed everything. Almost 80% of Finns decided that it was safer to join Nato.²

Some see this as a major blow to Putin. One purpose of his invasion of Ukraine, they say, was to make it clear that Russia would not tolerate further Nato expansion towards its borders. Since 1997, much of Russia's previous sphere of influence in eastern Europe has joined the organisation.

But it seems that the war has had the exact opposite effect. Russia's border with Nato is now 832 miles longer than it was before the war began.

Others say Putin is unlikely to be disappointed by the news. In fact, he could benefit from it.

Few experts believe Putin really feels threatened by Nato's creep towards Russian borders.

The invasion of Ukraine had little to do with Nato, they say, and much more to do with retaking territory that Russia used to control.

But fearmongering about the threat from Nato has helped Putin secure a veneer of legitimacy for his war. Now he will argue that Finland's move proves his point.

Yes: Before the war, there was little appetite across Europe for conflict with Russia. Now, almost the whole of Europe is united against it, even those who were previously neutral.

No: The Russian leader was already prepared to isolate Russia from Europe. He has decided his future is with China. European hostility simply gives him material with which to whip up Russian nationalism.

Or... Putin will no doubt try to turn Nato expansion into a propagandaInformation, which may be biased or misleading, used to promote a certain viewpoint. coup. But the fact remains that Nato is now on his doorstep, and this will limit his room for manoeuvre in future.