Divided states

Attack helicopters strafeAttacks from low-flying aircraft. the night sky. Squads of soldiers run through the streets. This violence is not taking place in GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. or UkraineA country in Eastern Europe. It was invaded by Russia in February 2022. , but modern-day America.

That's the idea behind a new film, Civil War. It tells the story of a group of journalists travelling across the country as rebel armies prepare to lay siege to the capital city.

The film does not explain how the war started. However, it features a Trump-like president who has won a third term in office and dissolved the FBIThe Federal Bureau of Investigation, which investigates crimes on a national level in the USA.. Even though the story is a fantasy, some think it will prove propheticAn accurate prediction of future events..

The USA is a deeply divided country. DemocratsMembers of the Democratic party, the left-leaning US political party. Joe Biden and Barack Obama are both Democrats. and RepublicansPeople who believe a country should not have a king or queen, or in the US, members of the Republican party. are moving farther apart on a range of issues.¹ According to a 2022 poll, 40% of Americans think a new civil war is "likely in the next 10 years".²

In November, the country will vote on the next president. Is there a risk of the result causing actual violence?

Yes, according to Canadian author Stephen Marche. He argues that "the American right have abandoned faith in government".³

The last few years have seen widespread protests over Black Lives MatterA political movement which aims to challenge police brutality and racism towards black people all across the world, usually using protests and other means of activism., street fights between far-right and anti-fascistFollowing fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism. demonstrators and the storming of the CapitolThe building in Washington DC where the US Congress meets. It was named after the Capitoline Hill in Rome. building on 6 JanuaryThen-US president Donald Trump was accused of inciting a mob of his supporters to storm the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 in a bid to overturn the 2020 election results. 2021.

However, others argue that the divides have been exaggerated. The overwhelming majority of Americans still support the right to vote, equal protection under the law, freedom of religion, freedom of speech and the right to privacy.⁴

The echo chamberAn environment in which somebody only hears views that reflect and reinforce their own. They are never challenged with opposing views. of social media means people receive a distorted sense of reality. Extreme views get all the attention, while moderate views are overlooked. According to two prominent political commentators, "we've been deceived into thinking we're more divided, more dysfunctional" than is actually the case.

However, the current fault lines in American society dates back to before social media. They relate to ethnic, religious and ideologicalRelating to core principles or beliefs. divisions that have been growing worse over time.  

Civil War is set in a nightmare vision of the future, but it explores genuine fears people have about contemporary America. To stop fiction from becoming a reality, the country's citizens must rediscover what they have in common.

Could it really happen?

Yes: America is more divided than at any point in recent history. A disputed election in November could tip the country into full-scale conflict.

No: American citizens still share many basic values. However, social media spreads extreme views and gives the false impression that everyone is moving apart.

Or... A civil war may be unlikely, but the issues dividing American society are deep and long-lasting. Without a shared commitment to unity, they will not be easily solved.