The odds that England will win the Euros? 4/1.¹ The odds that Donald Trump will be the next US president? 4/5.² The odds that Rishi Sunak would call a July election? 5/1. If you had put £100 on the last bet, you would have won a £500 payout.³

Craig Williams, a close political aide to the prime minister, made this bet three days before Sunak announced the election date. He is one of five Conservative politicians being investigated for betting on the election.

According to polling expert Luke Tryl, the scandal is getting lots of public attention, and almost everyone feels that it reflects badly on the Conservative Party.⁴

Trust in politics is at a record low. One recent poll states that four out of five people in the UK are dissatisfied.⁵ They blame the Partygate scandal during lockdown, long NHS waiting lists and the perceived failures of Brexit.

However, if a political party has ruled for a long time, this often leads to corruption. Recent examples include the SNP finances investigation, the MPs' expenses scandal at the end of the last Labour government, and the sleaze stories that troubled the Conservatives in the 1990s.

But maybe politicians are not to blame, as the public's trust in all institutions - government, law, academia and media - has been declining for years.

The internet makes this problem worse. It makes it easier for people to investigate what they are told, but also spread misinformation. As political theorist William Davies argues, people assume the "truth is out there, just not in the public domain".⁶

Betting on the election date is only a crime if you have inside knowledge. But, even if these politicians have done nothing wrong, it suggests that MPs think their job is just a game. The public cannot trust them if they refuse to take their own work seriously.

Can democracy recover?

Yes: Every political party has scandals towards the end of its reign. The fact that the British public are not backing extremists shows they still trust democracy.

No: Gamblegate is the latest in a long list of Conservative scandals. No wonder that public trust in politics has reached a record low.

Or... Trust in "elites" has declined in almost every country, whether they are in business, politics, science or the media. It may be bad for democracy, but politicians are not to blame.