It is the moment so many feared. All-out war in the Middle East, as Israel last night launched a ground invasion against Hezbollah in Lebanon and expanded its strikes from GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. and the West BankA landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories. to YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. as well.

In Lebanon, Israel has eliminated the leadership of HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. with bombings that have also killed well over a thousand civilians and displaced a million more.¹ In Yemen it struck the port of Hodeida, controlled by the HouthisAn Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza. .

But this is not just a local conflict. Hezbollah is a close ally of IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. , which provides it with funding and training. In return, Hezbollah does Iran's dirty work, propping up murderous SyrianFrom Syria, a Middle Eastern nation that has been involved in a civil war since 2011, killing thousands. dictator Bashar al-AssadThe president of Syria since 2000. (another Iranian ally) and threatening Israel's northern border. The Houthis are also linked with Iran, although less closely.

An emerging American perspective goes something like this: the US has long been seeking to pivot towards Asia, to counter the growing threat from ChinaA country in East Asia, home to 1.4 billion people.. However, it keeps getting bogged down in the Middle East, largely because of its enmityFeelings of hate. with Iran.

As such, it tried to create a new bulwarkA defensive wall. against Iran by building ties between Israel and nearby ArabArabia includes the countries on the coast of north Africa (from Morocco in the north-west) and the Arabian peninsula. It does not include Iran, which is in Asia but which is the most significant supporter of Shia Islam. allies that also oppose Iran, especially Saudi ArabiaThe second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million. . So far, this has had limited success because Israel has been unwilling to allow a Palestinian statePalestine is recognised as a sovereign state by 146 of 193 UN member nations. .²

Now the US has a golden opportunity. If it gives Israel free rein, it might even succeed in destroying the Iranian threat once and for all. Then, they believe, states like Saudi will naturally rally around Israel, forming a united front against the common enemy.³

Defeating Iran will in turn weaken RussiaThe largest country in the world by area. It has a population of 144 million people., which is reliant on Iranian weapons for its war on UkraineA country in Eastern Europe. It was invaded by Russia in February 2022. . That will free the US finally to make its "pivot to Asia".

This is about more than the Middle East, they say. It is the US and its allies striking a mortal blow against all their enemies at once.

This is one story. In the Arab world, however, the story many tell is quite different. Certainly, many loathe Iran and its proxiesIn warfare, a proxy is a smaller military power that fights or otherwise acts on behalf of a larger one.. They hold them responsible for the killing and displacement of millions in Syria and Iraq, and for the political ruin of Lebanon.

So they are happy to see Hezbollah destroyed and Iran humiliated. But they have a much deeper sense of solidarity with the PalestiniansPeople from Palestine, an area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. , the displacement of whom in 1948 is an ongoing source of trauma for the entire Arab world.⁴

They see Israel as a colonialWhen a region or country is controlled politically by another. state - a claim the nation's leaders deny.⁵ They complain that it feels entitled to attack any surrounding Arab state at any time, and face no punishment from the West.⁶

They fear they will never truly be safe for as long as Israel is allowed to act with impunitySafety from punishment. It derives from a Latin word for penalty.. At any moment, they worry, their country could be bombed or invaded by their more powerful neighbour.⁷

This extends to domestic politics. Many believe the US maintains brutal dictatorshipsA form of government in which one person possesses all the power without any limits. in their own states, like EgyptA country linking northeast Africa with the Middle East. , partly because it benefits Israel.⁸

Little wonder only 13% of people in Arab countries think there will ever be a possibility for peace with Israel.⁹

For much of the Arab world, then, the epic struggle is not between the US and Iran. It is their own struggle for freedom: their argument is that if Israel is allowed to follow its current path, Arab suffering will never end.

That in turn means the US strategy may not succeed. Arab states with no love for Iran will come under huge pressure from their own people not to rally around Israel either.

Can two simple stories explain it?

Yes: For the US and Israel, this is a chance like no other to strike down their enemies and reshape the world in their favour. But people in Arab nations believe in a very different story.

No: Two stories cannot explain the complexity of this situation. Israel has been here before. In 1982 it invaded Lebanon, declaring it would redraw the map of the Middle East. Instead it created a new set of enemies, including Hezbollah. The same will happen again.

Or... The US strategy is audacious, but it has a fatal flaw. The Arab world, so often divided, is united in its fury and hatred towards those who are launching the bombs. The result will likely be more instability, not less.