It is the moment so many feared. All-out war in the Middle East, as Israel expands its strikes from GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. and the West BankA landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories. to LebanonA small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million. and YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. .

Israel has eliminated the leadership of HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. with bombings that have also killed well over a thousand civilians and displaced a million more in Lebanon.¹ In Yemen it struck the port of Hodeida, controlled by the HouthisAn Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza. .

But this is not just a local conflict. Both groups are close allies of Iran.

An emerging American perspective goes something like this: the US has long been seeking to pivot towards Asia, to counter the growing threat from ChinaA country in East Asia, home to 1.4 billion people.. However, it keeps getting bogged down in the Middle East, largely because of its enmityFeelings of hate. with Iran.

As such, it tried to create a new bulwark against Iran by building ties between Israel and nearby ArabArabia includes the countries on the coast of north Africa (from Morocco in the north-west) and the Arabian peninsula. It does not include Iran, which is in Asia but which is the most significant supporter of Shia Islam. allies that also oppose Iran, especially Saudi ArabiaThe second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million. , although with mixed success.²

Now the US has a golden opportunity. They hope if Israel resoundingly defeats Iran, Arab allies will rally around it.³

Defeating Iran will in turn weaken RussiaThe largest country in the world by area. It has a population of 144 million people., which is reliant on Iranian weapons for its war on UkraineA country in Eastern Europe. It was invaded by Russia in February 2022. . That will free the US finally to make its "pivot to Asia".

This is about more than the Middle East, they say. It is the US and its allies striking a mortal blow against all their enemies at once.

This is one story. In the Arab world, however, the view is quite different. Certainly, many hate Iran and its proxiesIn warfare, a proxy is a smaller military power that fights or otherwise acts on behalf of a larger one.. But they have a much deeper sense of solidarity with the PalestiniansPeople from Palestine, an area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. , the displacement of whom in 1948 is an ongoing source of trauma for the entire Arab world.⁴

They see Israel as a colonialWhen a region or country is controlled politically by another. state - a claim the nation's leaders deny.⁵ They complain that it feels entitled to attack any surrounding Arab state at any time, and face no punishment from the West.⁶

They fear they will never truly be safe for as long as Israel is allowed to act with impunitySafety from punishment. It derives from a Latin word for penalty.. At any moment, they worry, their country could be bombed or invaded by their more powerful neighbour.⁷

Little wonder only 13% of people in Arab countries think there will ever be a possibility for peace with Israel.⁸

For much of the Arab world, then, the epic struggle is not between the US and Iran. It is their own struggle for freedom: their argument is that if Israel is allowed to follow its current path, Arab suffering will never end.

And that may doom the US strategy.

Can two simple stories explain it?

Yes: For the US and Israel, this is a chance like no other to strike down their enemies and reshape the world in their favour. But people in Arab nations believe in a very different story.

No: Israel has been here before. In 1982 it invaded Lebanon, declaring it would redraw the map of the Middle East. Instead it created a new set of enemies, including Hezbollah. The same will happen again.

Or... The US strategy is audacious, but it has a fatal flaw. The Arab world, so often divided, is united in its fury and hatred towards those who are killing them. The result will likely be more instability, not less.