Militia attrition

"We had to all hide, all ten of us, in the back room," said eight-year-old Leen, describing the moment armed men burst into her home in KhartoumBuilt at the meeting point of two rivers, the Blue Nile and the White Nile, it has a population of five million.. "I stayed calm. I didn't cry, because we couldn't make any noise." The men belonged to one of SudanA country in northeast Africa with a population of 45 million. 's two warring factions, the RSF (Rapid Support Forces).

The family finally made it to the safety of Saudi Arabia. Thousands of others have also fled Khartoum since fighting broke out two weeks ago. But for many it has been a hugely perilous journey.

"Streets closed off by gunfire," reported the Sunday Times. "Militiamen demanding bribes. Bodies in bombed-out buildings. Airstrikes, pounding artilleryWeapons., and a terrible feeling that time was running out."

"There's no safety," said Eltigani Abdelaal, a doctor from Manchester.¹ "My brother, who drove me to the airport, suffered a lot of aggression on the way back and nearly had his car stolen."

Many people have fled to Port SudanA city and port on the Red Sea in eastern Sudan. Sudan's main seaport and the source of 90% of the country's international trade. , 400 miles away, hoping to escape by sea. Saudi Arabia has been praised for evacuating over 5,000 people. But it is also part of the problem.

The cause of the conflict is a power struggle between two men. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is the head of Sudan's army, while General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commands the RSF militia. 

In 2021 the two mounted a military coup, arresting leading civilian politicians. But Dagalo resented Burhan's position as head of the government. This, and attempts to make the RSF answerable to the regular army and parliament, sparked the present fighting. 

The RSF has an appalling reputation. In its early days it carried out ethnic cleansingThe systematic forced removal from one area or killing of an ethnic group, with the aim of creating a region that is ethnically homogeneous. in the province of DarfurA region of western Sudan with a population of 9 million. .

But some countries are more interested in exploiting Sudan's mineral wealth and strategic position than in helping its people live in peace.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates see Dagalo as a valuable ally against militant Islamists. But they also have ties to Burhan, who - like Dagalo - fought for their alliance in Yemen.

Russia is keen to exploit Sudan's gold mines, and also to establish a naval base on the Red SeaA seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean. To its right is Saudi Arabia, to its left the coast of north Africa.. Egypt wants Sudan as an ally to stop its neighbour Ethiopia building a dam on the River Nile which would disrupt their water supplies.

China also has extensive interests in Sudan, which owes it over $6bn (£4.8bn) in loans. 

Yes: There are so many countries with conflicting interests involved that the fighting is bound to escalate. Russia's desire for a naval base in Sudan will surely lead to confrontation with the US.

No: The conflict has all the making of a proxy war. Different countries might support the two factions with arms and military expertise, but they will be careful not to involve their own troops.  

Or... It will not start a world war, but it will result in a massive refugee crisis. Sudan has a population of over 45 million and several of its neighbours are already coping with conflicts of their own.