Is history repeating itself? The far right were the big winners of this week’s elections to the European Parliament. Some fear they will soon be in power all over the continent.
Far right surge shakes France and Germany
Is history repeating itself? The far right were the big winners of this week's elections to the European Parliament. Some fear they will soon be in power all over the continent.
Political instability. Rising inflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy. and stuttering economic growth. Right-wing demagoguesA leader who takes power by whipping up the people against the elites, usually in a cynical and self-serving way. rail against immigration. ParamilitaryAn unofficial group organised like a military force. groups plot coups from grand estates.
This is not 2024, nor 1924. It is Europe in 1973, the last time people thought history might be repeating itself. Many feared then that they were returning to the 1930s.1 But in the end, the liberal order survived and flourished.
Now the comparisons are back. In European elections over the weekend, the far right triumphed in France, Austria, Belgium and Italy. It leapt up six seats in Germany, passing the governing centre-left SPD and Greens.2
It did suffer setbacks in Hungary, where Viktor OrbanThe prime minister of Hungary. He has clashed with the EU over gay rights and the independence of the judiciary.'s nationalists came first but lost a big chunk of their support to the centre-right, and the Netherlands, where the Left and Greens banded together to push them into second place.
However, the fact that the far right is among the main contenders in all these elections is already alarming. Just ten years ago, most of these parties were on the fringes. Now they are the gates of power across Europe.
Will this be another blip? Or will the far right finally overthrow the liberal order this time?
Some say the far right is not what it was 100 years ago. It is more subtle, and so more dangerous.
Back then, far-right parties denounced democracy as weak and inefficient. They argued their countries would be stronger if they abolished elections and political parties, and concentrated all power in a single man.
Today the far right presents itself as the only true defender of democracy against oligarchicA system of government in which a small elite rules. elites. Its aim is not to destroy democratic systems but to use them for their own purposes.
So when they get into power, they appoint their own people to positions of influence within the government. They gain control of the press and the legal system and use them to harass their opponents out of public life.
That means democracy is never formally abolished, as it was under MussoliniThe fascist dictator of Italy from 1925 to 1945. and Adolf HitlerA dictator, and the leader of Nazi Germany during World War Two. . Elections continue, but the far-right parties rig them in their favour.
However, that policy can backfire. In India last week, prime minister Narendra ModiThe prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian.'s efforts to rig the election failed, and he lost his majority.
That is why some are hopeful this might be the high tide of right-wing populism. The far right's strength in ScandinaviaThe name given collectively to Denmark, Norway and Sweden, three of the northernmost countries of Europe. The three countries have similar languages and political systems. has long been growing, but in this election left-wing and Green parties gave them a bloody nose.
The far right is good at campaigning but bad at governing, they say. People soon grow tired of them in power and chuck them out.
Others think the problem is not the far right getting into power. It is liberal adoption of far-right politics.
Across Europe centre-right governments have placed tighter restrictions on civil liberties, especially the right to protest.3 Long before the far right came to power in Italy, its government was criminalising NGOsNon-governmental organisations, such as charities or political campaign that sought to help migrants crossing the MediterraneanA sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia. .
Just last week, Joe Biden announced a sweeping executive order to ban new arrivals in the USA from seeking asylum which some said was just as strict as those introduced by Donald Trump.5
So to fixate on the far right parties, they say, is a mistake. It is time to look at the rules being imposed by liberal parties too.
Is history repeating itself?
Yes: Right-wing populists are on the cusp of taking power across Europe. They will probably win the next elections in France, Belgium and perhaps even Germany. It is the beginning of the end.
No: The far right today is different. It tolerates and even supports democracy and enters into coalitions with other parties. We are not going to see dramatic fascistFollowing fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism. coups as we did in the 1920s.
Or... It is true that the modern far right does not overthrow governments. But what makes it truly dangerous is its ability to make liberal governments adopt its ideas.
Inflation - An increase in the price of goods in an economy.
Demagogues - A leader who takes power by whipping up the people against the elites, usually in a cynical and self-serving way.
Paramilitary - An unofficial group organised like a military force.
Viktor Orban - The prime minister of Hungary. He has clashed with the EU over gay rights and the independence of the judiciary.
Oligarchic - A system of government in which a small elite rules.
Mussolini - The fascist dictator of Italy from 1925 to 1945.
Adolf Hitler - A dictator, and the leader of Nazi Germany during World War Two.
Narendra Modi - The prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian.
Scandinavia - The name given collectively to Denmark, Norway and Sweden, three of the northernmost countries of Europe. The three countries have similar languages and political systems.
NGOs - Non-governmental organisations, such as charities or political campaign
Mediterranean - A sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia.
Fascist - Following fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism.
Far right surge shakes France and Germany

Glossary
Inflation - An increase in the price of goods in an economy.
Demagogues - A leader who takes power by whipping up the people against the elites, usually in a cynical and self-serving way.
Paramilitary - An unofficial group organised like a military force.
Viktor Orban - The prime minister of Hungary. He has clashed with the EU over gay rights and the independence of the judiciary.
Oligarchic - A system of government in which a small elite rules.
Mussolini - The fascist dictator of Italy from 1925 to 1945.
Adolf Hitler - A dictator, and the leader of Nazi Germany during World War Two.
Narendra Modi - The prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian.
Scandinavia - The name given collectively to Denmark, Norway and Sweden, three of the northernmost countries of Europe. The three countries have similar languages and political systems.
NGOs - Non-governmental organisations, such as charities or political campaign
Mediterranean - A sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia.
Fascist - Following fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism.