But could nature be "antifragile"? The latest entry in the Planet Earth series reminds us of the beauty and vulnerability of the world. But some think there is room for optimism.
Eye-popping Planet Earth bears sombre message
But could nature be "antifragile"? The latest entry in the Planet Earth series reminds us of the beauty and vulnerability of the world. But some think there is room for optimism.
It is 1957. A 31-year-old BBC presenter named David Attenborough is on Raine Island in the Great Barrier ReefThe world's largest coral reef system found off the coast of Australia. , capturing some of the first ever footage of green turtles laying their eggs.
It is 2023. Attenborough's programmes no longer have an audience of mere thousands in Britain, but of tens of millions around the world.1
At 97 years old, he is too frail to return to Raine Island. But from Down House, Charles DarwinHis book, On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, is the founding work of evolutionary biology.'s old home,2 he offers the world a terrifying warning. The paradise he was the first to film is sinking beneath the waves.
At the end of the first episode of his new series, Planet Earth III, he tells us that on Raine Island the coastline is changing rapidly as sea levels rise. That leaves nesting green turtles unable to reach the water.
Thousands perish, dehydrated and exhausted. Their eggs rot. When the island disappears, the turtles here will simply die out.
It is a horrifying reminder of the vulnerability of the natural world. But some think nature actually has a lot to teach us when it comes to resilience. They say it is not really fragile at all, but antifragile.
Antifragility is the idea that the more stress a system faces, the more it thrives. Nassim Nicholas TalebTaleb is a Lebanese-American essayist and statistician., who invented the term, argues that it is a better aim than resilienceThe quality of toughness and flexibility that enables you to bounce back after setbacks.. He says: "The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better."3
Scientists say this is how evolutionA process of gradual change that takes place over many generations, during which species of animals, plants, or insects slowly change some of their physical characteristics. works. Changes in the environment are often very sudden. Species have to adapt quickly to this new stress if they want to survive.
Many do not succeed. But the ones that do come up with innovative techniques to make their ecosystemsComplex networks of living things that rely on each other to survive. hardier.
It is a technique that humans have already applied. Engineers design everything from bridges to aircraft not just to survive damage, but to become stronger because of it.4
<h5 class="wp-block-heading eplus-wrapper" id="question"><strong>But could nature be "antifragile"?</strong></h5>
Yes: The world has already experienced five mass extinctions, each one killing 70-90% of all species.5 Nature has always come back stronger.
No: Nature certainly recovers from disasters, but that does not mean it comes back stronger. It has no way of predicting what the world will look like in future, so it cannot prepare itself. That is why it is suffering so much now.
Or... There is no question nature will survive climate breakdown. What will not survive is the world as it is now, in all its wonder and glory. We are not looking to preserve nature for itself, but for ourselves.
Great Barrier Reef - The world's largest coral reef system found off the coast of Australia.
Charles Darwin - His book, On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, is the founding work of evolutionary biology.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist and statistician.
Resilience - The quality of toughness and flexibility that enables you to bounce back after setbacks.
Evolution - A process of gradual change that takes place over many generations, during which species of animals, plants, or insects slowly change some of their physical characteristics.
Ecosystems - Complex networks of living things that rely on each other to survive.
Eye-popping Planet Earth bears sombre message

Glossary
Great Barrier Reef - The world's largest coral reef system found off the coast of Australia.
Charles Darwin - His book, On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, is the founding work of evolutionary biology.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist and statistician.
Resilience - The quality of toughness and flexibility that enables you to bounce back after setbacks.
Evolution - A process of gradual change that takes place over many generations, during which species of animals, plants, or insects slowly change some of their physical characteristics.
Ecosystems - Complex networks of living things that rely on each other to survive.