Could climate change cause the next refugee crisis? Extreme weather events are putting lives at risk across the world. In the years to come, many may be forced to make drastic choices.
Earth records its hottest day ever - twice
Could climate change cause the next refugee crisis? Extreme weather events are putting lives at risk across the world. In the years to come, many may be forced to make drastic choices.
The sun beat down on the dusty road as Fatima trudged along, her small son clinging to her hand. They had been walking for days - ever since their village was destroyed by floods. They had lost everything: their homes, their belongings, their friends. Now they were two refugeesAnyone fleeing conflict or persecution is defined as a refugee by the UN as a refugee, regardless of where they are from., trying to find a new place to call home.
On Monday 3 July 2023 the world experienced its hottest day on record. The average global temperature reached 17.01C. This record-breaking heat was caused by a combination of factors, including climate change and the El NinoA climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean. weather pattern.
But then, only a day later, the record was broken again at 17.18C. It happened again the next day too, with scientists recording an average temperature of 17.23C.
Global warming is causing drastic changes around the world, from rising sea levels and extreme weather events to changes in agricultural yields and biodiversity loss. And experts fear they are only going to get worse in the future.
Fatima's story is not rare. She is just one of the millions of people who become climate refugees every year. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more common, more and more people are being forced to flee their homes in search of safety and security.
According to the United NationsAn international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world., climate change is already displacing millions of people around the world. The UN International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has estimated that there could be as many as one billion environmental migrants in the next 30 years. More recent projections suggest that this number could reach 1.2 billion by 2050 and 1.4 billion by 2060. After 2050, this figure is expected to increase significantly as the world continues to warm and the global population peaks in the mid-2060s.
It leaves another big question: where will climate refugees go? For many migrants, the move they make is from rural to urban areas in their own country. But many would like to leave their own country for the safety of a richer one. Not all will receive an open-armed welcome from abroad. Some say this is hypocrisy on the part of wealthier nations, as the biggest polluters and greatest contributors to climate change.
Surprisingly then, some are talking about the possible benefits of climate induced migration. They argue that climate migration could lead to economic growth and development in new areas, as well as improved opportunities for education and employment for migrants who previously may have lived in rural areas lacking these opportunities.
There is precedent for this, they point out. One study found that in the aftermath of a volcanic eruption in Iceland, children of families whose homes were destroyed by lava and had subsequently been forced to move had dramatically improved educational outcomes and lifetime earnings when compared to those who had not been affected.
Could climate change cause the next refugee crisis?
Yes: As the planet warms, sea levels will rise, extreme weather events will become more common and agricultural yields will decline. This will lead to mass migration, as people are forced to flee their homes in search of safety and security.
No: Many people who are displaced by climate change are also displaced by other factors, such as war and poverty. With the right support these people may be able to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Or... The question is whether or not this is actually a crisis. Climate change may force people tragically to lose their homes and relocate but with proper planning it need not be the disaster people fear.
Keywords
Refugees - Anyone fleeing conflict or persecution is defined as a refugee by the UN as a refugee, regardless of where they are from.
El Nino - A climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean.
United Nations - An international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world.
Earth records its hottest day ever — twice
Glossary
Refugees - Anyone fleeing conflict or persecution is defined as a refugee by the UN as a refugee, regardless of where they are from.
El Niño - A climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean.
United Nations - An international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world.