It was a rainy British summer morning in the churchyard. The vicar began: "We have come here today to remember before God the ToryA member of the Conservative party.  party." The gravestone next to him read: "The British Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories., 1834-2024."

Last night, 14 years of Conservative government came to an end with a crash. With three seats left to declare at 10am, the ToriesThe Tory Party was the former name of the Conservative Party. The phrase is still used to refer to Conservatives.  had shrunk to just 120 seats - a crushingly low figure for the party that has ruled modern Britain more than any other.¹

In light of this dramatic result, some commentators have suggested the party might be out for the count. The Washington Post called it an "extinction-level" event.

This result once seemed unthinkable. The Conservatives have been called "the world's most successful political party". Last election it won 365 seats and a healthy majorityMore than half. .

The Conservative Party was established by Sir Robert PeelA 19th Century British prime minister, and founder of London's Metropolitan Police..² In the 20th Century it became Britain's main right-wingSometimes referred to as 'conservative', this is a range of political beliefs that emphasise the value of tradition, individual freedom and responsibility, low taxes and a hands-off approach to government. party. Since 1900 it has held the reins of power for 73 out of 124 years.³

It has been in government since 2010.⁴ In that time it has gone through a record five successive prime ministers. Four resigned after failure or scandal. Journalist Sam Knight says: "These have been years of loss and waste."

The party now finds itself in a vice. To its left the Liberal DemocratsAlso known as the Lib Dems, a liberal political party in the UK. have chipped the blue wallA set of parliamentary constituencies in southern England which usually vote Conservative, but could be vulnerable to the Labour Party or Lib Dems due to disagreements with Brexit. . To its right Reform UKA right-wing populist party in the UK. It has support from Nigel Farage and used to be called the Brexit Party. has hoovered up votes.

Reform leader Nigel Farage, now an MPMember of Parliament. There are 650 MPs representing people in different areas of the UK., has threatened a "reverse takeover" of the Conservatives, where his party becomes the leading right-wing group.⁵

The Tories have faced bad times before. In 1846, after Peel repealed the Corn LawsThe Corn Laws banned the import of cheap grains, in order to protect British farmers. It was repealed after crop failure in Ireland caused famine, and to promote free trade., the party split. It took another 28 years for them to form a majority government.

In 2001, after Tony BlairTony Blair was the leader of the Labour party. He was British prime minister from 1997 to 2007. 's Labour Party had won two elections in a row, political journalist Peter Oborne wrote "The Tories are not just down, they're nearly out."⁶ Cameron won nine years later.

The party is ruthless in changing track and replacing unpopular figures. They knifed Margaret ThatcherBritain's first female prime minister and the longest-serving prime minister of the modern era. in 1991. Boris Johnson suffered a similar fate in 2022. 

Another reinvention could give it a new lease of life. But no one is yet sure what sort of beast it might turn into.

Will they bounce back?

Yes: Five years is a very long time in politics. In today's chaotic world, parties can fall and return with alarming speed. And Britain's First Past The PostA voting system in which the winner is simply whoever comes first in each area. As such, the winning party almost never has a majority of the vote, and sometimes might even win a smaller share of the vote than its opponent. system blocks smaller parties from government.

No: Brexit chaos, PartygateNickname given to the controversy over a series of illegal gatherings hosted in 10 Downing Street, Johnson's office and home, during the Covid-19 lockdown., the Truss budget, falling living standards, election betting... the list of Conservative failures is enormous. It defies belief that a party could return after so many crises.

Or... The Conservative Party as it stands might collapse. But there will always be politicians with right-wing views. MP John Hayes says: "Toryism must have its day again." But maybe not under the Tories.