A politician with distinctive blond hair and a bright red tie stands on a stage. In front of him is a raptCompletely fascinated or absorbed. audience of cheering activists. Roaring into the microphone, he promises to make the country great again.

It may evoke images of Donald Trump's meteoricSomething that develops very fast and attracts a lot of attention. rise in the United States, but this time it is Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. On 23 November his party won the most votes in the Dutch election. To many, this victory was a shock, given his far-right views on immigration, Islam and the Europe Union.

Wilders is not the only successful politician with extreme views. Autumn saw election victories for the radical candidates Javier Milei in Argentina and Robert Fico in Slovakia. Turkey, India, Italy, Hungary and Russia all have nationalistsThe Nationalists were loyal to the Chinese ruler Chiang Kai-Shek. After being defeated by the communists in the civil war, Chiang remained ruler of Taiwan until his death in 1975. as leaders, and many predict that Donald Trump will win the next election in America.

These politicians are known as populists. They claim to represent the will of the people against mainstream political parties. And they are on the rise: one-third of Europeans now vote for populist far-left or far-right parties. "Mainstream parties are losing votes; anti-establishment parties are gaining," said Matthijs Rooduijn, the political scientist behind this research.¹

Populist leaders often treat those who disagree with them as enemies - including the courts, the media, and other political parties. They try to keep hold of power by ignoring the democratic process and attacking religious or ethnic minorities.

To many, these tactics are a reminder of the rise of fascismA political ideology that rose to power in 20th-Century Europe. It stressed militarism and order over personal freedom, and often divided society according to racial hierarchies. in the 1920s and 1930s. The political party of Italy's current prime minister, Georgia Meloni, has been called "the most right wing to govern the country since the collapse of MussoliniThe fascist dictator of Italy from 1925 to 1945. 's dictatorship 80 years ago."²

However, others point out that the political and economic situation in Europe was completely different during the 1930s, with the long aftermath of World War One and the Great Depression, and the risk of a communistAn economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government. revolution.

After World War Two, organisations were founded to make sure that period never returned. As respected journalist Jonathan Freedland has argued, the United NationsAn international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world., the European UnionA political and economic union of 27 countries., and the International Monetary FundAn international organization that promotes global financial stability and encourages international trade. It is made up of 190 member countries. "were all born of a resolve not to repeat the mistakes of the 1930s."³

One new reason for the rise in populist politicians is their use of social media, allowing them to speak directly to voters, but also spread fake news and social unrest. In 2021, Donald Trump was banned from Twitter after praising rioters who stormed the CapitolThe building in Washington DC where the US Congress meets. It was named after the Capitoline Hill in Rome. building in Washington.

However, democracies give people the right to change their politicians. Recent elections in Brazil and Poland saw far-right leaders replaced. At the beginning of 2023, the number of populist leaders around the world was actually at its lowest for two decades.⁴

Next year sees roughly fifty elections taking place around the world, with two billion people choosing their next leaders. Populist leaders will play a major role, even if none of them become the next Hitler.

Yes: One in three voters in Europe choose far-right or far-left politicians. History teaches us the danger of populist leaders. We should take them seriously before it's too late.

No: The situation today is nothing like the 1930s. International institutions give us much stronger defences against populism. Making scary comparisons to the past only confuses things.

Or... We should not ignore the risk of populism, nor should we demonise far-right or far-left leaders. Instead we have to ask why so many people prefer them to mainstream politicians.