Will there be a revolution? Xi Jinping has cracked down on freedoms as the economy slows and unemployment soars. People are losing hope. But will they dare to take on the regime?
China's malaise: the real story of our time
Will there be a revolution? Xi Jinping has cracked down on freedoms as the economy slows and unemployment soars. People are losing hope. But will they dare to take on the regime?
China has got the blues. Graduates are snapping photos of themselves sprawled face down, "zombie style". A selfie of an unemployed factory worker "lying flat" in bed sums up the mood of a young generation in the doldrumsA time of gloom or depression. .1
"Bewildered" and "frustrated." This is how Chinese citizens describe a new "age of malaiseA feeling of sadness or uneasiness. " engulfing the country, according to interviews and analysis by journalist Evan Osnos.2 China, he writes, is "slipping from motion to stagnation."
Its rise was meteoric. In 1978, it was one of the world's poorest countries. As the communistAn economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government. state opened up to international trade, the economy doubled every decade. By 2010, it was the second-largest and had lifted almost 800 million people out of poverty.3
After Xi Jinping became president in 2013, he urged young people to "dare to dream". Analysts spoke of a Chinese Century dominated by the Asian giant. But now, Xi tells the young to "eat bitterness" as growth stalls and jobs dry up.
At China's top university, students ask themselves: "What are we here for?" Over 300,000 Chinese emigrated in 2022, and one expert thinks youth unemployment has hit 46%.4 But will growing frustration turn into organised opposition?
In 1989, the government brutally suppressed a student protest in Tiananmen SquareA huge open space in the middle of Beijing. It is known for a large-scale student protest that took place there in 1989 before being brutally crushed by China's communist rulers. . Meanwhile, the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. collapsed. Privately, President Xi says China must strengthen its "tools of dictatorship" to avoid the fate of communist Russia.
Known as the "Core" by party faithful, Xi changed the constitution to allow him to rule for life. Workers must study his political philosophy, and places for free thinking, like bookshops and bars, have shut. Online discussion is tightly controlled, including a block on 564 nicknames for the president.5
"If you have influence," an entrepreneur told Osnos, "you have power." And Xi has gone after anyone who might challenge his rule. In recent years, high-profile generals, ministers and businessmen have "disappeared" or been charged with corruption.
Public protest is rare in China. But in 2022, people took to the streets in the largest demonstrations since Tiananmen Square. They demanded an end to strict lockdown measures. Within weeks, China lifted almost all restrictions.
Some experts argue this may be a sign of things to come.6 For the first time in decades, widespread popular protest targeted the central government. And it was not just about Covid-19. People held up a blank sheet of A4 paper, a symbol of the state censorship of civil society.
A top Chinese economist says the current leadership are "fundamentalists", and people increasingly demand "constitutionalism and human rights".7 Critics blame Xi for China's malaise, and unrest could challenge the man opponents call "the last emperor".
Others may fear the consequences of rebellion. Recently, a drone issued a dystopianRelating to an imagined society where there is great suffering or injustice. warning to angry citizens: "Control your soul's desire for freedom. Do not open the window to sing." It is an open question whether young people intend to listen.
Will there be a revolution?
Yes: Never in history have so many people been controlled by one man. They have given up many freedoms for the promise of a richer society. Fed up and disappointed, they will want their freedom back.
No: President Xi has removed all opposition to his power. People are angry but also fearful - they live in a society where anyone could disappear without warning, and where public protest is impossible.
Or... Not yet. Regimes like this do not last forever, especially when they fail to provide basic needs to their citizens. But it may take many more years before the right circumstances for change emerge.
Keywords
Doldrums - A time of gloom or depression.
Malaise - A feeling of sadness or uneasiness.
Communist - An economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government.
Tiananmen Square - A huge open space in the middle of Beijing. It is known for a large-scale student protest that took place there in 1989 before being brutally crushed by China's communist rulers.
Soviet Union - Officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991.
Dystopian - Relating to an imagined society where there is great suffering or injustice.
China’s malaise: the real story of our time
Glossary
Doldrums - A time of gloom or depression.
Malaise - A feeling of sadness or uneasiness.
Communist - An economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government.
Tiananmen Square - A huge open space in the middle of Beijing. It is known for a large-scale student protest that took place there in 1989 before being brutally crushed by China's communist rulers.
Soviet Union - Officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991.
Dystopian - Relating to an imagined society where there is great suffering or injustice.