In October 2023, the British Library, national library of the United Kingdom, came under attack. Not from guns or bombs, but from a hacker group named RhysidaA criminal group behind high profile cyber attacks. that stole 600GB of information and demanded £600,000 in exchange for it.

If that were the whole story, it would just have been embarrassing. Cyber attacksAttacks by hackers (in this case under the direction of the Chinese state) targeting important computer systems such as those of government agencies. are a part of modern life, targeting many UK institutions, including universities and the NHSThe National Health Service, the publicly funded healthcare system in the UK. The NHS was founded in 1948..

What is worrying is that the library still has not recovered. Its online services remain down and the British government has refused to give a penny to get it up and running again.¹

Many experts thought this was a sign that the UK had become deeply vulnerable to cyber attacks. And on Monday their worst fears were confirmed as hackers broke into the heart of Britain's national security apparatus, the Ministry of DefenceIn the UK, the government department in charge of defence. It serves as the British Army HQ. , and stole names and bank details belonging to members of the armed forces.

The government is not yet officially pointing fingers. But sources mutter that China is responsible for the attack.

Chinese leader Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life. at least has an alibi: he is currently on a trip to Europe, where he is visiting Serbia, Hungary and France.

He picked these countries for a reason. All three have criticised the US-led global order. The Chinese embassy in Serbia was bombed by NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. 25 years ago during its intervention in the Kosovo WarAn armed conflict between Yugoslavian forces and a Kosovan Albanian separatist militia over the control of Kosovo that ran from February 1998 to June 1999. , which will give Xi an opportunity to castigate the alliance. Hungary is a Nato member but also a close partner of Russia.

And France, the biggest prize of all, envisages Europe as a bridge between the West and the Global South, which China claims to lead.²

But France is also a major member of Nato. Observers fear that Xi is looking to pick apart the alliance by detaching its biggest powers from the USA.

China's advantage is that it does not need to convert US allies to its own side. It claims all it wants is a world of sovereign states that freely cooperate, instead of the big blocs that the USA favours.

So if a country like France keeps its relationship with the USA but also creates ties with China, that is a win for the latter's vision of the global order.

All in all it adds up to a grim picture, say some. Britain reels from a cyber attack while China picks Nato to pieces. Meanwhile the USA threatens to re-elect a man who sees the alliance as a waste of money and wants to withdraw from the world.

But others say we have it backwards. It is China that feels weak. Its economy is growing fast but still has deep structural problems. That growth is largely dependent on exports.

And that has put it on a collision course with the European Union. China has invested $30bn (£24bn) year on year in production of electric vehicles. It is now looking to export 10 million of them every year.⁴

But France has a big car industry of its own, and it does not want to face subsidisedWhen a government or other authority has paid part of the cost of something, so it is cheaper than it otherwise would be. Chinese competition. Xi is looking to smooth things over because he knows if walls go up around the European market, China's economy will suffer.

So there is weakness on both sides. The risk is that each side lashes out at the other more and more to compensate for the feeling that they are losing control. Fear of weakness can easily become a cause of war.

Is the West too weak?

Yes: The alliance that has dominated the world since 1945 is coming apart. British defences are crumbling, France is striking out on its own path, and the USA gets closer to civil war by the day.

No: The USA accounts for almost 40% of global military expenditure. It spends more on its military than the next nine countries combined. For as long as that is true, its allies do not necessarily matter.⁵

Or... The biggest problem is that both the West and China feel at risk from each other. They both feel the safest option is to adopt an ever more hostile posture. And that may tip us into an unnecessary war.