In October 2023, the British Library, national library of the United Kingdom, came under attack. Not from guns or bombs, but from a hacker group named RhysidaA criminal group behind high profile cyber attacks. .¹

Many experts thought this was a sign that the UK had become deeply vulnerable to cyber attacks. 

And on Monday their worst fears were confirmed as hackers broke into the heart of Britain's national security apparatus, the Ministry of DefenceIn the UK, the government department in charge of defence. It serves as the British Army HQ. .

The UK government is not yet officially pointing fingers. But sources mutter that China is responsible for the attack.

Chinese leader Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life. at least has an alibiEvidence that you were somewhere else when a crime took place. : he is currently on a trip to Europe, where he is visiting Serbia, Hungary and France.

He picked these countries for a reason. All three have criticised the US-led global order.

And France, the biggest prize of all, envisages Europe as a bridge between the West and the Global South, which China claims to lead.²

But France is also a major member of NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members.. Observers fear that Xi is looking to pick apart the alliance by detaching its biggest powers from the USA.

All in all it adds up to a grim picture, some say. Britain reels from a cyber attack while China picks Nato to pieces.

But others say we have it backwards. It is China that feels weak. Its economic growth is largely dependent on exportsGoods that are made in one country and then sold in another. .

And that has put it on a collision course with the European Union. China is looking to export 10 million electric vehicles every year.⁴

But France has a big car industry of its own, and it does not want to face subsidisedWhen a government or other authority has paid part of the cost of something, so it is cheaper than it otherwise would be. Chinese competition. Xi is looking to smooth things over because he knows if walls go up around the European market, China's economy will suffer.

So there is weakness on both sides. The risk is that each side lashes out at the other more and more to compensate for the feeling that they are losing control. Fear of weakness can easily become a cause of war.

Is the West too weak?

Yes: The alliance that has dominated the world since 1945 is coming apart. British defences are crumbling, France is striking out on its own path, and the USA gets closer to civil war by the day.

No: The USA accounts for almost 40% of global military expenditureHow much money is spent. . It spends more on its military than the next nine countries combined. For as long as that is true, its allies do not necessarily matter.⁵

Or... The biggest problem is that both the West and China feel at risk from each other. They both feel the safest option is to adopt an ever more hostile posture. And that may tip us into an unnecessary war.