Zhang, a 20-year-old in the Chinese city of Huizhou, is unimpressed. A local factory is looking for employees, but paying only £500 a month; recruits are expected to "work hard and endure hardship". He would rather stick with his current job in a tea shop, where at least he can chat to the customers.

Zhang is part of a disillusioned generation - one that believed China's economy would go from strength to strength. Instead, they find themselves struggling, with a 20% unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds.¹ Zhang does not believe he will ever have enough money to buy a house or get married.

This is just one aspect of China's problems. Not long ago people were talking about "the Chinese century", in which it would overtake the US as the world's largest economy. But the latest statistics make this look unlikely.

Last week the remnimbiThe official currency of China. The yuan is its basic unit. hit its lowest point against the dollar since 2007. ExportsGoods that are made in one country and then sold in another. fell for the fourth month in a row, and are almost 9% down on a year ago.² The burden of debt has risen and the property market is in crisis.

China's rise began in 1978 when its then president Deng Xiaoping opened China to international trade and investmentWhen you put money into a project or idea in the hope it will be successful in the future. . The average citizen's earnings increased 25-fold and over 800 million people were lifted out of poverty.³

Chinese factories took over a huge proportion of the world's manufacturing. The state embarked on massive building projects, including hundreds of airports and tens of thousands of miles of road.

InfrastructureThe basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going. schemes abroad increased its international cloutInfluence or power. . Western countries vied for Chinese students and Chinese shoppers. So what has gone wrong?

The Economist blames the autocraticRelating to a ruler with total power. President Xi for giving the top jobs to people loyal to him rather than technocratsPeople with technical training who have power and influence in society or politics. : "China used to tolerate debate about its economy, but today it cajolesPersuades. analysts into fake optimism."

One problem is overbuilding. An estimated 20% of apartments in urban China - at least 130 million - have failed to find buyers,⁴ leaving property companies which largely fuelled the boom facing bankruptcy. Airports and railway stations have been built in places where there are not enough people to keep them going.

An aggressive foreign policy has made the country less attractive to overseas investors. The trade war started during Donald Trump's presidency has seen China's share of the US import market fall from 21% to 14%.⁵

There are demographic problems too. With an alarmingly low birth rate, the labour force is shrinking as the population grows older.

The US, meanwhile, has grounds for optimism. "Two megatrends have shaped American life since the 1980s," writes David Brooks in The New York Times: "The rise of China and the hollowing out of American industry." Now, he believes, those trends are reversing.

Since 2017, the US has gained 530,000 manufacturing jobs - particularly in poorer states which until recently were described as "left behind". Productivity is 67% higher than it was 30 years ago.

Yes: China is facing the same fate as Japan did in the 1990s after a property crash - years of deflationDeflation occurs when prices fall. This is bad for the economy as people put off spending in the hope of prices falling further, causing a vicious cycle. and limited growth. The US is revitalising its economy in a way which heals deep social divisions.  

No: China's economic downfall has been predicted many times before, but it is still enormously strong. Whatever progress the US is making could be undone if Donald Trump is re-elected as president.

Or... A faltering China could spell trouble for the rest of the world. Like other dictators, Xi might try to shore up his popularity by launching a foreign war, with TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China. the probable target.   

Remnimbi - The official currency of China. The yuan is its basic unit.

Exports - Goods that are made in one country and then sold in another.

Investment - When you put money into a project or idea in the hope it will be successful in the future.

Infrastructure - The basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going.

Clout - Influence or power.

Autocratic - Relating to a ruler with total power.

Technocrats - People with technical training who have power and influence in society or politics.

Cajoles - Persuades.

Deflation - Deflation occurs when prices fall. This is bad for the economy as people put off spending in the hope of prices falling further, causing a vicious cycle.

Taiwan - An island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.