Zhang is not impressed. A local factory is looking for employees, but paying only £500 a month. Recruits are expected to "work hard and endure hardshipDifficult times in which you suffer. ". He would rather stick with his current job in a tea shop, where at least he can chat to the customers.

Zhang is part of a generation who believed China's economy would keep on booming. Instead, they are struggling to find work.

Not long ago, people forecast that China would overtake the US as the world's largest economy. This now looks unlikely.

Last week the remnimbiThe official currency of China. The yuan is its basic unit. hit its lowest point against the dollar since 2007. ExportsGoods that are made in one country and then sold in another. fell for the fourth month in a row. Debt has risen and the property market is in crisis.

China's rise began in 1978 when its then president Deng Xiaoping opened China to international business. The average citizen's earnings increased 25-fold.¹

So what has gone wrong?

The Economist blames President Xi for only giving the top jobs to people loyal to him: "China used to tolerateTo put up with something unpleasant or annoying, debate about its economy, but today it cajolesPersuades. analysts into fake optimism."

One problem is overbuilding. At least 130 million apartments in urban China are unsold,² so property companies are facing bankruptcy. Airports and railway stations have been built in places where there are not enough people to keep them going.

An aggressive foreign policy has put off overseas investors. And with a very low birth rate, the labour force is shrinking as the population grows older.

The US, meanwhile, has grounds for optimism. "Two megatrends have shaped American life since the 1980s," writes David Brooks in The New York Times: "The rise of China and the hollowing out of American industry." He believes those trends are reversing.

Since 2017, the US has gained 530,000 manufacturing jobs. Productivity is 67% higher than it was 30 years ago.

Yes: China is facing the same fate as Japan did in the 1990s after a property crash - years of deflationDeflation occurs when prices fall. This is bad for the economy as people put off spending in the hope of prices falling further, causing a vicious cycle. and limited growth. The US is revitalising its economy in a way which heals deep social divisions.  

No: China's economic downfall has been predicted many times before, but it is still enormously strong. Whatever progress the US is making could be undone if Donald Trump is re-elected as president.

Or... A faltering China could spell trouble for the rest of the world. Like other dictators, Xi might try to shore up his popularity by launching a foreign war, with Taiwan the probable target.