For dozens of Israelis, seven weeks of anguish end today. Children reunited with their parents, elderly people with their families. Meanwhile the bombs will stop falling on millions of PalestiniansPeople from Palestine, an area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. . A small glimmer of hope after weeks of horror and despair.

HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. will today release 13 of the 239 hostages it took on 7 October. In exchange, Israel is releasing 39 Palestinian women and children from its jails. Over the next few days, a total of 50 hostages and 150 Palestinians are due to be released.

The fighting will be paused for four days, and 200 lorries will be allowed to carry humanitarian aid into GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. , although experts say many more are needed to end the starvation, disease and injuries that are still killing Palestinians.¹

Many hope this might mean peace is once again on the horizon. Much can happen in four days. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dangled the promise of an extension if more hostages are released. It might be possible to broker a more lasting agreement.

But the storm clouds have not dispersed. Israel has already declared that once the pause is over it will resume its war on Gaza.

This is because for Israel, the hostages are only one objective. The other is to destroy Hamas as a military and political force.

Moreover, some influential Israeli cabinet ministers were opposed to this deal from the start. Far-right figures like Bezalel SmotrichIsrael's finance minister. He lives in a settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is considered illegal under international law. are thought to want to use the crisis as a pretext to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza permanently.² They will put pressure on Netanyahu to continue the war.

He also has his own reasons to drag it out. A majority of Israelis want him to step down once the war ends.³ And once he leaves office he will face bribery and corruption charges that could see him imprisoned for years.⁴

On the other hand, most of Israel's international allies privately believe destroying Hamas is unachievable. So far Israel is alleged to have killed more United Nations staff than it has Hamas commanders.⁵ Much of the group's leadership is abroad, beyond Israel's reach. Others are deep in the Gaza tunnel network, away from the bombs.

And even if Israel does succeed in killing more Hamas commanders on the ground, experts think it will not take the organisation long to regroup.

Then there is the question of who could govern the enclave instead of Hamas. Some Israeli politicians have said Israel should run Gaza itself, which the USA opposes.

The USA wants the Palestinian AuthorityA legal entity, established in 1994, by which Palestinians govern the parts of the Gaza Strip and West Bank that are not attached to Israel. or the Arab LeagueA regional and political group of Arab states in the Middle East and Africa. to govern, but neither is enthusiastic. Arab countries fear their own people's anger if they are seen to collaborate with Israel.

Ultimately, experts say, it is impossible to impose a government on the Gazans. Western attempts at regime-building have generally ended in disaster. If they do not want the government given to them, they will simply overthrow it.

The USA hopes to square this circle by reviving the two-state solutionA proposed solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, which imagines an independent State of Palestine as well as the State of Israel. . But it is not clear how to get there.

Many leaders on both sides will settle for nothing less than the other's total destruction. There are people on both sides who believe they have an absolute right to the land in the region.

Even if the USA could bring together different leaders from both sides, like Israel's Yair LapidIsrael's current Leader of the Opposition and former prime minister. He is from the centrist Yesh Atid party. and Hamas's Ismail HaniyehA Hamas leader based in Qatar. He is viewed by Arab officials as more pragmatic than Hamas's military wing inside Gaza. , the two would be unlikely to reach an agreement.

Lapid insists Israel must annex much of the West BankA landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories. in any two-state agreement.⁶ But Haniyeh, like all previous Palestinian leaders, has said they will never accept any further loss of land.⁷

So, some experts say, it is most likely we end up with the worst of all worlds: exactly where we were on 6 October.

Yes: Both sides know they cannot achieve their aims through military force. Nor can they just go on fighting forever. They will take the chance to reach a negotiated settlement.

No: Israelis will not accept an end to the war which leaves Hamas intact. Hamas is happy for the war to drag on because the more Palestinians Israel kills, the more it alienates its Arab neighbours. This is far from over.

Or... In the end both sides will succumb to pressure to stop the fighting. But there is currently little prospect of a lasting peace deal. The current nightmare will end, but the next will not be far away.

Palestinians - People from Palestine, an area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia.

Hamas - A militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.

Gaza - The smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt.

Bezalel Smotrich - Israel's finance minister. He lives in a settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is considered illegal under international law.

Palestinian Authority - A legal entity, established in 1994, by which Palestinians govern the parts of the Gaza Strip and West Bank that are not attached to Israel.

Arab League - A regional and political group of Arab states in the Middle East and Africa.

Two-state solution - A proposed solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, which imagines an independent State of Palestine as well as the State of Israel.

Yair Lapid - Israel's current Leader of the Opposition and former prime minister. He is from the centrist Yesh Atid party.

Ismail Haniyeh - A Hamas leader based in Qatar. He is viewed by Arab officials as more pragmatic than Hamas's military wing inside Gaza.

West Bank - A landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories.