Not with a bang, but with a whimper. After 14 years of brutal, criminal warfare, 500,000 dead, millions displaced, in the end it took less than two weeks for a Syrian rebel offensive to overthrow their dictatorA ruler who has total power, and has often taken power by force. , Bashar al-AssadThe president of Syria since 2000. He fled to Russia with his family in 2024. .¹

No-one on the planet saw this coming. Experts thought a ceasefireAn end to fighting - often temporary. in 2020 meant the end of the war.² It was a depressing conclusion, nine years after the Syrians first rose up as part of the Arab SpringA series of mass protests across the Arab World against dictatorships that had stood for decades. In Tunisia, the protesters succeeded in creating a democratic government, but many other countries collapsed into civil war or experienced new dictatorships., a regional upheaval that saw the toppling of four dictators in Arab countries.

Now Syrians are celebrating something they never expected to see: the fall of their hated regime.

Assad was no run-of-the-mill autocratA leader who rules by force and with absolute power, without the permission of others.. He has repeatedly used chemical weaponsToxic chemicals used deliberately to harm people. on his own people. His prisons have been hives of torture and abuse.³

And he was also a central node in a global network of dictators, backed especially by IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. and Russia.

That is why some are hopeful Assad's fall will have a domino effect. Ukrainians, anti-Putin Russians and Iran's considerable internal opposition may seize on this moment of weakness for Assad's two biggest allies.

Some hope it might even reignite the Arab Spring, emboldening people across the region and then the world to overthrow corruptA corrupt person abuses their power for personal gain. It often involves bribery. dictators and monarchies everywhere.

But others caution against such optimism. They say Assad's case is unique.

Assad's state was fragile, entirely reliant on the military force of his two bigger alliesAn ally is someone that aligns with and supports a cause with another individual or group of people.. So when those allies got distracted with their own conflicts, there was nothing to keep his regime from collapsing.

This is not true of Russia, Iran, or other dictatorships, whose authority is much more consolidated.

Additionally, while many across the Middle East are celebrating with the Syrians today, much will depend on the success of their transition to a new government.

The leading Syrian rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is an IslamistAn advocate of Islamic fundamentalism. Often used in the West to describe those who believe in imposing Sharia (Islamic law) on societies. group that began as an offshoot of al-QaedaThe terrorist organisation was set up in 1988 by Osama bin Laden and other Arab volunteers fighting in the Soviet-Afghan War.. It has its own history of repression and human rights abuses.⁴

Syria has many religious minorities, including Christians, DruzeA small Middle Eastern religious group. They mostly identify as Arab and speak Arabic. Their faith grew out of Islam in the 11th Century but also includes elements of Hinduism and other philosophies. , and AlawitesAn ancient Muslim sect mostly found in Syria. Syria's ruling family since 1971, the Assads, are Alawites, which made the community politically dominant. . Although most had little love for Assad, they fear persecution by Islamists as well.⁵

HTS has sought to reassure Syrians and the world, announcing it will respect the rights of minorities, ensure a democratic transition, and may even disband.

But the reality remains that the only thing uniting the Syrian opposition was their hatred for Assad. Now he has gone, their deep rifts could yet plunge Syria back into war.

Before they turn on their own rulers, many will be watching to see if Syria can make a success out of its revolution.

Could even Putin be toppled?

Yes: Every revolution sets others in motion. People around the world will be inspired by the Syrians, who have proved that even the most brutal regimes are fragile.

No: Authoritarian regimes often stay in power by exploiting divisions in their populations. If Syria collapses into in-fighting, minorities in Iran, Russia and elsewhere will take it as a sign to stick with their dictators.

Or... No-one knows what the future holds. For now what matters is the joy of the Syrian people. They must be allowed to rebuild without the rest of the world sticking their oar in.