"Get that guy!" Soldiers shouted and gave pursuit. But they were too late. Travis King dashed over the border. One witness said he was laughing as he ran headlong into the "hermit kingdom". The most isolated country in the world: North Korea.

The US privateBelonging to one person or group of people only. Also, the lowest rank of soldier in most armies. was supposed to be flying home to face disciplinary charges. King had already served two months in jail for assault. But last Tuesday, he slipped out of sight. The US Army says he is "absent without leave" in Kim Jong-unThe leader of North Korea since 2011. 's prison state.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, this already secretive country has become virtually impenetrable. Its borders are shut. DefectorsA person who has abandoned their country or cause in favour of an opposing one. fleeing the dictatorship are shot on sight. State-controlled media prevents its 25.9 million citizens from learning about the world beyond.

What will happen to Travis King? "I worry about him, frankly," says army chief Christine Wormuth. The US bans its citizens from travelling to North Korea due to risk of arrest and imprisonment.

In 2016, the regime jailed student Otto Warmbier for stealing a hotel poster. Since the US has no diplomaticNon-violent peacekeeping. Diplomatic means keeping good relations between the governments of different countries. relations with North Korea, the Swedish embassy helped negotiate his release. He returned to the US in a coma and died six days later - his family believe he was tortured.

The White House says they are "gathering the facts" on King's whereabouts and well-being. But this incident comes amidst escalating tensions in the region. This month, North Korea tested "its most powerful" missile yet, capable of reaching the US mainland.

In the 1950s, the US backed South Korea in a bloody war against the communist North. No peace treaty was ever signed, and the two sides are technically still at war. Last month, slogans at a rally in PyongyangThe capital of North Korea. In the early 20th Century it was a centre of Christianity known as the "Jerusalem of the East". called for a "war of revenge" to destroy the "imperialistImperialism is the practice of growing a country's power through colonisation or force. US".

The worst fear is this might go nuclear. The day King crossed the border, a US nuclear-armed submarine arrived in South Korea. Kim Jong-un has vowed to increase nuke production. Expert Ankit Panda fears weapon tests may become "training exercises" for an imminent war.

The Swedes are no longer in Pyongyang, and North Korea has "not yet answered" the US Army's call. The North may be in no rush to send King back. But could the capture of a laughing soldier really start World War Three?

Countries come to blows over less. In 1859 an American farmer caused an international incident when he shot a British-owned black boar on a disputed island near Vancouver. In 1925, a stray dog on the Greece-Bulgaria border led to a misunderstanding that left 50 dead.

These strange events often follow years of simmering tension. The 1738 War of Jenkins' Ear between Britain and Spain was not just about a mutilated mariner. There was more to the 1838 Pastry War than a French king coming to a chef's aid in Mexico City.

But expert Leif-Eric Easley doubts Pyongyang have much to gain by holding on to King. In a "best-case scenario," he says the incident might encourage the two sides to resume dialogue frozen since the pandemic.

Yes: There is a real risk that events will spiral out of control. With little dialogue between the two sides, small accidents can turn into major misunderstandings. The consequences could be catastrophic.

No: Kim Jong-un is bluffing. War would destroy his regime. His missile tests are designed to strengthen his hand in future talks. So he will use King's capture to his advantage but not to start a war.

Or... The scary truth is we just do not know. An incident like this should not cause war, but history shows that it can. We know very little about what is going on inside North Korea and what they will do next.