"Get that guy!" Soldiers shouted as Travis King dashed over the border. One witness said he was laughing as he fled into North Korea.

The US soldier was supposed to face disciplinaryAbout enforcing rules. charges. But last Tuesday, he disappeared. The US Army says he is "absent without leave" in Kim Jong-unThe leader of North Korea since 2011. 's prison state.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, this secretive country has become even more isolated. Its borders are shut. State-controlled media stops its citizens from learning about the world.

What will happen to Travis King? "I worry about him," says army chief Christine Wormuth. The US bans its citizens from travelling to North Korea due to risk of imprisonment.

In 2016, the regime jailed student Otto Warmbier for stealing a hotel poster. The US has no diplomaticNon-violent peacekeeping. Diplomatic means keeping good relations between the governments of different countries. relations with North Korea, and Sweden helped negotiate his release. He died soon after returning home. His family say he was tortured.

Tension is rising on the Korean peninsula. This month, North Korea tested "its most powerful" missile yet, capable of reaching the US mainland.

In the 1950s, the US backed South Korea in a war against the communistAn economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government. North. No peace treaty was signed, and the countries are technically still at war. Last month, a rally in PyongyangThe capital of North Korea. In the early 20th Century it was a centre of Christianity known as the "Jerusalem of the East". called for a "war of revenge" to destroy the United States.

The fear is this could go nuclear. The day King crossed the border, a US nuclear-armed submarine arrived in South Korea. Kim Jong-un has vowed to increase nuke production. Expert Ankit Panda fears weapon tests may become "training exercises" for a war.

North Korea has "not yet answered" the US Army's call and may be in no rush to send King back. But could this really start World War Three?

Countries come to blows over less. In 1859 an American farmer caused an international incident when he shot a British-owned black boar on a disputed island near VancouverA city on the west coast of Canada which is consistently named as one of the best places in the world to live.. In 1925, a stray dog on the Greece-Bulgaria border led to a misunderstanding that left 50 dead.

These strange events often follow years of simmering tension. But expert Leif-Eric Easley doubts Pyongyang have much to gain by holding on to King. In a "best-case scenario," he says it might encourage the two sides to resume dialogueConversation. .

Yes: There is a real risk that events will spiral out of control. With little dialogue between the two sides, small accidents can turn into major misunderstandings. The consequences could be catastrophic.

No: Kim Jong-un is bluffing. War would destroy his regime. His missile tests are designed to strengthen his hand in future talks. So he will use King's capture to his advantage but not to start a war.

Or... The scary truth is we just do not know. An incident like this should not cause war, but history shows that it can. We know very little about what is going on inside North Korea and what they will do next.