Should we calm down about armageddon? The threat of World War Three is causing a huge global wave of anxiety. But nearly all sensible opinions agree it is vanishingly improbable.
WW3 is NOT going to happen, experts say
Should we calm down about armageddon? The threat of World War Three is causing a huge global wave of anxiety. But nearly all sensible opinions agree it is vanishingly improbable.
The bombs are falling. The tanks are churning through the mud. Every day, more people are dying.
Fighting in Ukraine has become a grim new normal. As the tension between world leaders rises once more, some fear violence could spread beyond the frontlines in Eastern Europe.
Yesterday, in a major speech in London, UK foreign secretary Liz Truss called for Britain and other Western nations to send warplanes to Ukraine. Germany has pledged to send 50 tanks. Meanwhile, Poland's tanks have already arrived.
Russia has responded with fury. Energy giant Gazprom cut off gas suppliesThe EU and Ukraine have accused Russia of using its energy supplies to try and blackmail countries supporting Ukraine. to Poland and Bulgaria. A Kremlin spokesperson warned that Moscow was prepared to bomb Western diplomats in KyivThe capital of Ukraine..
"War means war," Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told viewers of state-run television channels. "NATOThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members., in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxyA person or country used to represent someone else.."
As the conflict enters its third month, some believe another world war is closer than ever. But many say these fears are overblown. Here is why:
Stop catastrophising. Humans often focus on the worst-case scenario, say psychologists. "It's a protective mechanism," explains clinical psychologist Linda Blair. "We think 'if I think the worst, then when the worst doesn't happen I'll feel relieved."
Catastrophising causes anxiety. In most cases, the statistics do not back up the fears. Last month, a group of experienced forecasters put the risk of a full-scale nuclear war starting in 2022 at 0.35%.
Empty threats. Threats are just as much a part of human nature as catastrophising. Sergei Lavrov's words of war are "utter nonsense", says British armed forces minister James Heappey.
Premature predictions. World War Three has been forecast before, during the Cold War, the Vietnam War and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In 1950The poll came amid growing tensions between the US and the Soviet Union., one poll found that more than half of Americans thought it had begun.
Failing forces. So far, Russia's army has lost 15,000 troops, 2,000 armoured vehicles, 530 tanks and its Black Sea flagship, the Moskva. Russia does not have the resources for a world war.
Absent allies. Both World War One and World War Two were fought by powerful blocks of allies. When the UN proposed a resolution condemning the invasion, only five countries voted against it. One was Russia. The other four - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria - would not change the outcome of a war.
Mutually assured destruction. The possibility of annihilation is enough to make any leader think before starting a conflict. As one journalist summarises: "Nobody in power wants to be the cause of armageddon".
Should we calm down about armageddon?
Yes: World War Three is highly unlikely. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not going according to plan. It cannot afford to take on the rest of the world too. Peace will prevail.
No: There is no sign of the end of this conflict. In the past week, the tension between East and West has been mounting again. We must prepare for the possibility of a global war.
Or... There is no point in worrying about something we cannot control. It is a waste of time and energy to obsess over the likelihood of a catastrophe. Fear will not change the eventual outcome.
Keywords
Gas supplies - The EU and Ukraine have accused Russia of using its energy supplies to try and blackmail countries supporting Ukraine.
Kyiv - The capital of Ukraine.
Nato - The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members.
Proxy - A person or country used to represent someone else.
1950 - The poll came amid growing tensions between the US and the Soviet Union.
WW3 is NOT going to happen, experts say
Glossary
Gas supplies - The EU and Ukraine have accused Russia of using its energy supplies to try and blackmail countries supporting Ukraine.
Kyiv - The capital of Ukraine.
Nato - The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members.
Proxy - A person or country used to represent someone else.
1950 - The poll came amid growing tensions between the US and the Soviet Union.