Are you a delayer or a container? What's your pandemic strategy? As Europe launches a wartime clampdown, the UK's more relaxed coronavirus strategy is under fire from some scientists.
Virus may last a year and put 8m in hospital
Are you a delayer or a container? What's your pandemic strategy? As Europe launches a wartime clampdown, the UK's more relaxed coronavirus strategy is under fire from some scientists.
All the bars in France have closed. In Spain, police drones are telling people to stay indoors. In Austria, gatherings of more than five people have been banned.
Covid-19The official scientific name for the type of coronavirus that swept the world from March 2020. is transforming Europe. Schools are closing their gates and borders are being patrolled.
But in the UK, the government is simply telling people with a cough or fever to stay at home. Otherwise, carry on as normal - at least for now.
As Robert Colvile, the director of the Centre for Policy Studies, wrote yesterday: "There is a new dividing line in politics. Instead of leave versus remain, we have contain versus delayWhen something happens later than it was planned.: should we seek to halt, or at least slow, the virus via an Asian-style blitzkriegGerman word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory., or stick to a war of attrition, as the UK government prefers, with the aim of ensuring the NHS is never completely overwhelmed?"
With over 1,000 reported cases and dozens of deaths inside the UK, the "delay" strategy is proving controversial.
A number of scientists have written a letter expressing their concern, calling on the government to take "more restrictive measures [...] as is already happening in other countries across the world".
Critics of the government's policy argue that the UK should look towards the success of countries like China and South Korea in containing the virus. In those places, widespread testing and strict quarantinesRestrictions on the movement of people and goods intended to prevent the spread of disease. were enforced.
But for the UK government, the priority is ensuring that the NHS does not get overwhelmed. The virus is already here and it is spreading. It says we must avoid a situation where hospital beds run out and people needing treatment for other urgent ailmentsDiseases, illnesses. are unable to get help.
Additionally, if people are made to isolate for months, they might risk experiencing "behavioural fatigue".
Instead of forcing everyone into self-isolation now, the UK government wants to wait until it is absolutely necessary.
At its current rate, should the virus follow a similar pattern to outbreaks in countries like Italy, infections will reach their peak in a couple of months.
By then, the country might have developed, unmitigatedWithout policies to combat, control or contain., this could still lead to the deaths of many tens of thousands of people in the short term, if not more.
Matt Hancock, the UK health secretary, fiercely denied that "herd immunityUsually used to describe the effectiveness of vaccination, the term refers to having enough people in a given community who have recovered from a viral infection and, therefore, cannot pass it on. This slows the spread of a disease and prevents a population from future epidemics." was ever part of the government's strategy. Instead, he said: "To protect life, we must protect the vulnerable, and protect the NHS and flatten the curveOr, as Boris Johnson described it, "squashing the sombrero". This is the idea that the role of a government during a pandemic is to stop numbers of cases reaching a critical point where health services are overwhelmed.."
<h5 class=" eplus-wrapper" id="so-should-you-be-a-delayer-or-a-container">So, should you be a delayer or a container?</h5>
Delay is a more nuanced, but clever way of ensuring our long-term safety. Assuming we only have one chance at quarantining the entire country, then we should wait until it is absolutely necessary. This is a new virus that risks coming back every winter. Until a vaccine is developed, we should attempt to keep the spread of the virus as slow and as steady as possible so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.
Contain. There is a reason that other countries are prioritising keeping their population indoors. This allows them to protect vulnerable people now - not at some future point in time. This is important because we cannot predict how the virus will behave. It is possible that, unconfined, the virus will very quickly spread to a level that could overwhelm the NHS.
Covid-19 - The official scientific name for the type of coronavirus that swept the world from March 2020.
Delay - When something happens later than it was planned.
Blitzkrieg - German word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory.
Quarantines - Restrictions on the movement of people and goods intended to prevent the spread of disease.
Ailments - Diseases, illnesses.
Behavioural fatigue - Another controversial assumption included in the government's delay strategy, which claims that people will get bored of staying indoors and not seeing their friends, so it shouldn't be implemented too early.
Unmitigated - Without policies to combat, control or contain.
Herd immunity - Usually used to describe the effectiveness of vaccination, the term refers to having enough people in a given community who have recovered from a viral infection and, therefore, cannot pass it on. This slows the spread of a disease and prevents a population from future epidemics.
Flatten the curve - Or, as Boris Johnson described it, "squashing the sombrero". This is the idea that the role of a government during a pandemic is to stop numbers of cases reaching a critical point where health services are overwhelmed.
Virus may last a year and put 8m in hospital
Glossary
Covid-19 - The official scientific name for the type of coronavirus that swept the world from March 2020.
Delay - When something happens later than it was planned.
Blitzkrieg - German word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory.
Quarantines - Restrictions on the movement of people and goods intended to prevent the spread of disease.
Ailments - Diseases, illnesses.
Behavioural fatigue - Another controversial assumption included in the government's delay strategy, which claims that people will get bored of staying indoors and not seeing their friends, so it shouldn't be implemented too early.
Unmitigated - Without policies to combat, control or contain.
Herd immunity - Usually used to describe the effectiveness of vaccination, the term refers to having enough people in a given community who have recovered from a viral infection and, therefore, cannot pass it on. This slows the spread of a disease and prevents a population from future epidemics.
Flatten the curve - Or, as Boris Johnson described it, "squashing the sombrero". This is the idea that the role of a government during a pandemic is to stop numbers of cases reaching a critical point where health services are overwhelmed.