Virus death toll reaches 500,000 worldwide

Will we prevent a second wave? Britain is on a “knife edge”, warns a government adviser this morning. And US test sites were overwhelmed, yesterday, as global infections passed 10 million. As excess deathsThe number of fatalities above what would be expected in normal times. It includes non-Covid-19 deaths caused by disruption to the healthcare system. fell, restrictions eased and life switched back to normal, many in the West assumed the worst was over. How mistaken is this? And what is really going on? The facts are grim. The global death total passed 500,000 yesterday, while the number of confirmed cases passed 10 million. These records were hit as countries around the world struggle to keep new infections from reaching runaway levels, while simultaneously trying to emerge from painful lockdowns. In April, a month after the World Health Organisation declared the outbreak a pandemic, deaths topped 100,000. In early May, the figure climbed to 250,000. Now, it has doubled in less than two months. More than a quarter of all known deaths have been in the United States. Data released by the US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention shows that the actual figures are probably 10 ten times as high as reported. The spike has led officials in Texas, Florida, and other states to tighten restrictions on business again, with warnings that hospitals may soon be overwhelmed. In the UK, government adviser Jeremy Farrar warns that "we're on a knife edge" and risk seeing "a very nasty rebound". The government admits that it is considering a localised lockdown in response to an upsurge in Leicester. Here is a brief overview. The big picture Analysis by Bloomberg highlights that, while it took four months for the virus to reach a million cases, an extra million people are now being infected each week. Although the peak appears to have passed in Western Europe, Covid-19 is now tearing through the rest of the world. Latin America is being particularly badly hit. South Asia and Africa are yet to fully experience the first wave. The best-performing countries. According to the Financial Times, which tracks all excess deaths during the last few months, several countries have seen no unusual spike whatsoever. These include Iceland, Israel, Norway, and South Africa. Research from the University of Oxford suggests that badly-hit European countries Italy, Spain, and Belgium appear to be recovering well, despite now lifting restrictions. The worst-performing countries. The USA has recorded the most cases and the most deaths, at over 2.5 million and 125,000 respectively. The Washington Post described this as a "historic failure". The UK, with over 45,000 dead, has the highest fatality rate per 100,000 people in the world. According to that measure, the US comes second, followed by Peru, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, and Ecuador. Second spikes. After slowing down for several months, cases in the US are now surging again. Several states, including Florida and Texas are now closing bars and restaurants once more. The New York Times described it as "a terrifying sequel". Second waves have also hit better prepared countries. In Beijing, a new outbreak centred around an agricultural market. In Seoul, a nightclub was the new epicentreThe central focus of something. In an earthquake, the point on the Earth's surface directly above the focus. . In Germany, the coronavirus spread around a meat processing plant, infecting 1,500 people. So, will we prevent a second wave? Groundhog virus No. At least not without going back to harsh lockdowns and closing borders. Governments that are already unpopular for mistakes made during their first lockdowns are trying to win back support by kick-starting their economies. Voters are fed up and rebellious. It is unlikely that governments will have the courage to go back to phase one again. Yes. There are nations that have become good models for the rest of the world. Increasingly, we will be forced to follow their example. Some of the countries suffering second spikes, like Germany, South Korea, Singapore, and Australia, are able to notice small local changes in the data and respond swiftly. This seems to work. KeywordsExcess deaths - The number of fatalities above what would be expected in normal times. It includes non-Covid-19 deaths caused by disruption to the healthcare system.