It is almost 2am on the 4th of November. The votes are adding up and Joe Biden has just been declared the winner. Everyone is waiting for Donald Trump to call his rival and offer his congratulations.

But no. Trump appears live on Fox NewsAmerica's biggest cable news channel, with an average total prime time audience of 2.6 million viewers. It is generally believed to have a strong right-wing bias.. He tells his supporters that the Democrats have stolen the election. All over the country, people take up arms to keep him in office. Soon whole cities are on fire.

This is the nightmare scenario that many US experts now fear. They worry that if Trump loses the presidential election, his supporters might rally to keep him in power, triggering a new wave of violence that could escalate into an all-out war.

Last week, members of a right-wing militia known as the Wolverine Watchmen were arrested for attempting to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Their aim was to spark a new civil war.

They are one of many right-wing paramilitary organisations that have sprung up in the USA. Perhaps the most notable is then Proud BoysThe far-right organisation is dedicated to starting street brawls with left-wing groups. In 2019, some of its members were convicted of assault in New York., an all-male fascist group that provokes street fights with left-wing protesters.

Alarmingly, some have even accused the police of collusion with these groups. The Guardian has reported that police in PortlandA city in Oregon, on the west coast of the United States, which has been at the centre of recent violent clashes between right-wing and left-wing groups. helped members of another far-right organisation, "Patriot Prayer", to avoid arrest.

Trump himself has repeatedly appeared to incite his supporters to violence. During his debate with presidential rival Joe Biden in September, he called upon the Proud Boys to "stand by" for the election.

He has also warned that Democrats are trying to rig the election, an accusation that could lead his supporters to reject the results. Militias have already stated that they intend to "monitor" polling stations across the USA. Many believe that their real aim is to intimidate Biden voters.

Even if Trump accepts defeat in the election, the threat of violence could continue as other right-wing politicians and media figures have also praised violent far-right militias.

When 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse killed two left-wing protesters in WisconsinA northern state of the USA. Once a Democratic stronghold, it was key to Trump's victory in the 2016 election. last month, more than 11,000 people donated around $1 million to pay the legal fees in his murder trial. There is a risk that right-wing violence becomes normalised.

If Trump's supporters do rise up, they will not lack the hardware. Over 45% of all civilian guns in the world belong to Americans. Their ownership is highly concentrated: 133 million guns are in the hands of just 3% of the population. This 3% is disproportionately white, male, and middle-aged - ominously all groups that tend to support Trump.

But some argue that political violence has always been commonplace in the USA, without spilling over into civil war. No fewer than four of the 44 men who have become president of the United States were assassinatedMurdered for political ends. The word is thought to derive from the name given to a Shia Muslim sect based in medieval Persia, the Hashshashin, who carried out high-profile murders of important leaders. while in office. Most of the major figures involved in the civil rights movement of the 1960s, including Martin Luther King Jr and Malcolm XA contemporary of Martin Luther King Jr, he believed that African Americans must be willing to use violence in order to achieve their political ends. He was murdered in 1965., were assassinated. Some leaders of the Black Panther PartyA self-defence organisation set up by African Americans to monitor and prevent police brutality. Active from 1966-82, it became a target for the FBI. It also had chapters in the United Kingdom and Algeria. were even killed by police.

Yes, say some. After Trump's victory in 2016, several US cities saw riots and violent protests carried out by anarchist groups. However, this never threatened to escalate into war. No civilian armed force would ever be able to match the military for firepower, so even if right-wing militias did try to start a civil war, they would very quickly be defeated.

Not at all, say others. Right-wing militias in the USA are much more dangerous than anarchist protesters: they have murdered several people in the last few years. The attempted kidnapping of Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer proves how serious they are. Journalists warn that they have sympathisers in the military, as well as in the police, who might simply refuse to fight them, or might even take their side.