Three years later, 11 states in the South secededWhen a group or region withdraws from a larger political entity. In the run-up to the American Civil War, 11 states seceded from the USA and set up a new nation, known as the Confederate States of America or the Confederacy for short. from the USA. 620,000 Americans would die in the brutal civil war that followed.

That war has left a deep wound. And for those who watched one year ago today as some 2,000 people stormed the US Capitol BuildingThe building in Washington DC that hosts the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was built during the Civil War., those dark days seem closer than ever before.

Today, Biden will address his country for the anniversary of that attack. He has stated that he will "speak to the truth" of the event.

Biden knows that many of the divides over which the country fought the civil war are still there. The North and South often back opposing presidential candidates. They have different laws on key issues, such as gun ownership, voting rights and abortion.

And some fear they might boil over once again. In a book out next year, political scientist Barbara WalterِAn American political scientist who works on the causes of civil wars and terrorism. She also has a role advising the CIA. warns that the USA is "closer to a civil war than any of us would like to believe".

Walter believes that the USA is no longer a democracy. She points out that Republicans are passing laws that will make it harder for their opponents to vote.

And she accuses them of seizing control of the Supreme Court, the judicial body that is supposed to be independent of party politics.

She thinks these moves will deepen the gulfs that are already rife in American society, and could ultimately lead to war.

Others think a civil war is unlikely. Generally, insurrections only succeed where the military is weak. The US military is the most powerful force in history. It could quickly put down any rebellion.

But other kinds of conflict could still break out. Some have warned of the risk posed by far-right groups like the Proud BoysThe far-right organisation is dedicated to starting street brawls with left-wing groups. In 2019, some of its members were convicted of assault in New York.. In 2020, one extremist group even plotted to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

These militias might not be able to take on the US military, but they could still do a lot of harm. America is the most heavily-armed country in the world, with 120.5 firearms for every 100 people.

Yes: Many Americans already believe the electoral system is rigged against them and their country is being taken over. If only a small number of these people take up arms they could start a devastating war.

No: Most people, including Republicans, condemned the Capitol riots. There would be little support for a new insurrection, and the army would stamp it out easily.

Or...? A war is unlikely, but the USA is already seeing violent clashes between extremist groups. Many people could suffer and die in this low-intensity conflict, even if it does not become a war.