Death spiral

It is the kind of moment that comes about once a century. Yesterday, two great enemies stood on opposite sides of a war zone and gave speeches that will shape the future of the world.

In his address, Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West. repeated many of the false claims he has made over the last year, blaming the West and Ukraine for the war.

But the one new claim he made was a chilling one. He declared that Russia will withdraw from the New START Treaty that forbids nuclear testing.

This is important because Putin has previously suggested he might use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If he does, the war will enter uncharted waters.

If, in this scenario, the USA responded with its own nuclear arms, the conflict would quickly escalate into global annihilation. But refusing to go to the brink would mean admitting that a tyrant can kill as many people as they like, commit any kind of atrocity, as long as they have nuclear bombs. The world would never again be a stable place.

What Joe BidenThe president of the USA, elected in 2020. said, meanwhile, was less telling than the place in which he said it. After a surprise visit to Ukraine over the weekend, he gave his speech from the Polish city of Warsaw, just over the border from the frontlines.

It underlined the unspoken fact that he is a leader in this conflict. And it was a reminder that he is de factoSomething that happens in practice, in contrast to that which happens de jure, or according to the law. head of NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. and the leader of the free world.

Why does this point need to be made? European support for Ukraine was slow to come. Many believe this was because they did not want the supply of Russian gas to dry up, fearing economic catastrophe.

With western economies still struggling with massive inflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  caused by the war's disruption of energy supplies, there are fears that European support for Ukraine might start to wane. 

If they believe an end to the war might mean a return to economic normality, they might start pushing for peace at any cost, even if it means Ukraine giving up territory and Putin claiming a win.

Biden is also worried that China might invade TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.. He knows the EU is very dependent on Chinese trade.¹ He fears it will be unwilling to take another hit to its economy by cutting off trade with China. The USA would be standing alone.

Yes: Putin has made it clear he is ready to drop nuclear bombs on Ukraine. There is no good response to that for the USA. And China may also take advantage of the war to isolate the USA from its European allies.

No: The risks of using nuclear weapons are too great for Russia. And China is not yet keen to make a move against the greatest military power that has ever existed.

Or... The war may not escalate at once, but both sides have made it clear they will not back down. That means a drawn-out conflict, possibly lasting for many years, in which the chances of a flare-up will never be far off.