Midterm electionsElections are held halfway through each US president's four-year term. All the seats in the House of Representatives and some in the Senate are up for grabs. in the USA usually punish the ruling party. Last night was no exception: in a neck and neck race this morning, RepublicansPeople who believe a country should not have a king or queen, or in the US, members of the Republican party. looked set this morning to wrestle control of both the House of RepresentativesThe lower chamber of the United States congress. There are 435 representatives, with a certain number allocated to each state based on the state's population. and the SenateThe upper chamber of the Congress that - along with the US House of Representatives (lower chamber) - comprises the legislative branch of the US government. Each of the 50 US states is equally represented by two senators, regardless of its population size..

The stakes for these midterms were higher than usual. Some of the night's biggest winners were candidates who have claimed the 2020 presidential election was rigged. 

Many Republicans will conclude that they are more likely to win in future by taking up extreme positions than by working with Joe Biden. Washington DC could now be facing two years of deadlock.

And amid the confusion and the panic, the spectre of a past the Democrats thought they had banished rears its head.

At a rally on Monday, Donald Trump stated that he would be making a "very big announcement" next week. Everyone expects he will declare he is running for president again in 2024.

Trump would face an uphill struggle: a poll last month showed that just 34% of voters have a positive view of him, compared with 54% with a negative view.

But he has always defied political gravity. And there are factors in his favour. Biden, who is also likely to run for a second term, will spend the next two years struggling to get anything done.

Moreover, there are signs that it will be a changed Trump who runs in 2024: more focused, less erratic.

If Trump can exploit worries over the economy and rein in his own worst excesses, he could well make the most stunning comeback in recent political history.

Yet his return could have severe consequences. Israeli historian Yuval Noah HarariThe Israeli historian and author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. He argues that a cognitive revolution, around 70,000 years ago, gave us the powerful tool of imagination that made all future development possible. has even warned that 2024 could be "the last democratic election in US history".

Bit by bit, he warns, violence has become normalised. Less than two weeks ago, a man radicalised by right-wing conspiracy theories tried to kidnap Democratic politician Nancy PelosiSpeaker of the US House of Representatives, which is one of the two chambers in Congress. and badly injured her husband.

Ordinarily, this kind of incident would spark deep soul-searching about the state of politics. Instead, Republicans largely avoided commenting, while some even claimed the attack was a false flagA harmful action designed on purpose so it will look like someone else is responsible. .¹

Some have drawn parallels with Weimar GermanyThe government of Germany from 1918 to 1933. , where street fights between Nazi thugs and CommunistsPeople who believe in an economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production. became common. As political violence grew, people turned to whoever could restore order - even at the expense of democracy.

Yes: No democracy can survive when people do not trust the electoral process and when political violence is endemic. Trump does not need to abolish democracy: he can simply ignore it.

No: The USA has always been a violent place. Four of its 46 presidents were assassinated. American democracy has proved remarkably sturdy in spite of this fact. It is not going to collapse now.

Or... This election has seen armed vigilantesPeople who take it on themselves to stop or punish crime without any authority to do so. crowding around polling stations, intimidating voters. Many people were prevented from voting by voter ID laws. 2020 was the last democratic US election.