Weimar nightmare?

After months of speculation, the wait was over. At 9pm last night Donald Trump mounted the podiumA small platform on which a person stands to be seen by an audience, as when making a speech, receiving a prize, or conducting an orchestra. to speak the words his supporters so longed to hear. Undeterred by his defeat in the 2020 election, he declared his intention to stand for president again in two years' time. The demagogueA leader who stirs up people's emotions rather than using clever or admirable ideas to win them over. who had promised to "make America great again" was back.

But while his die-hard fans were ecstatic, other people on both sides of the political divide were filled with dismay.

There have always been some Republicans who disliked Trump's populist rhetoricThe art of persuasion.. But because he was seen as an election-winner, they were prepared to put up with it.

After the midterm elections, however, many feel that he is more of a liability than an asset. The Republicans expected to make spectacular gains, as the opposition usually does in the midterms. But the much-vaunted "red wave" failed to materialise: the Democrats retained control of the SenateThe upper chamber of the Congress that - along with the US House of Representatives (lower chamber) - comprises the legislative branch of the US government. Each of the 50 US states is equally represented by two senators, regardless of its population size., while the struggle for the House of RepresentativesThe lower chamber of the United States congress. There are 435 representatives, with a certain number allocated to each state based on the state's population. remains too close to call.

Significantly, there were several embarrassing defeats for candidates whom Trump had personally endorsed, and who shared his baseless claim that the 2020 election had been stolen from him.

The restrictions on abortion announced by the Supreme CourtThe highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions., which has a majority of right-wing judges, are thought to have turned many voters against the Republicans. But fear of the divisions stirred up by Trump, and his refusal to accept an obvious defeat, are also seen as key factors.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result," said the outgoing Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan.¹ "Trump's cost us the last three elections and I don't want to see it happen a fourth time."

It is far from certain that Trump will win the Republican nomination to run for president, let alone the 2024 election. But some are warning of dire consequences if he does.

Earlier this month the third most senior Democrat in the House of Representatives, James Clyburn, declared that the US was "on track to repeat what happened in Germany".²

Clyburn was referring to the collapse of the Weimar Republic. This was set up in 1918 after Germany's defeat in World War One. Although named after the town where its constitution was drafted, it covered the whole of the country.

It had a liberal government with high ideals, but suffered a great deal of political violence. Between 1919 and 1923, at least 400 people were murdered by right-wing extremists.

But because most judges were very conservative, right-wing agitators tended to receive much lighter sentences than left-wing ones. After leading the unsuccessful Beer Hall PutschAttempted coup in 1923 by Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party to overthrow the republican government of Bavaria. in 1923, Adolph Hitler spent just one year in prison. Ten years later he forced his way to power.

Some people believe Trump is just as guilty of encouraging violence - particularly the attack on the CapitolThe building in Washington DC where the US Congress meets. It was named after the Capitoline Hill in Rome. last year. But he too seems likely to escape proper punishment.

Yes: There are the same ingredients: the rise of political violence; right-wing courts; racism; propaganda based on conspiracy theories; economic problems including high inflation; and a weak president.   

No: Most people still believe in democracy, and many Republicans are appalled by Trump's claim that the election was stolen. US inflation is currently at 7.7%, compared to 700% in Germany in July 1922.

Or... The US could also be compared to the Roman Republic in the 2^nd Century BC, when political violence became common following the murder of Tiberius Gracchus - a left-wing tribune - by a right-wing mob.