Decline and Fall

Thousands of academics are engaged in a surprising new business: searching through hundreds of thousands of papers looking for hints that they might be totally made up.

And though it might sound like a boring job, some say they are our last hope of protecting our age-old trade in knowledge.

The problem? "Paper mills." These worrying new businesses make a profit from creating fake scientific findings and data.

They have been traced back mainly to China, Iran and Russia, and can be dangerous - especially as these fake findings often concern the medical sphere.

Fraudulent Intentionally false and meant to harm or deceive. papers frequently feature digitally altered "findings" which can be sophisticated enough to be virtually undetectable.

Because of this, nobody really knows how much new scientific output is actually fraudulent. Experts estimate that it is between 2% and 20% of new published papers, and China is one of the worst offenders.

But China's contribution to global research is also increasing - in 2021, Chinese papers made up 23% of all international output - leading to concerns that we may be inundated with false information.¹

It could not have come at a more tense moment. Some experts believe that China is set to corner the market in new science, with a recent report claiming that Beijing is ahead in developing 37 out of 44 categories of technology.²

Yet between the West and China, trust is reaching a dangerous low amid its computer chip "Cold War" with America, as well as allegations of intellectual theft and spying. In 2022, FBIThe Federal Bureau of Investigation, which investigates crimes on a national level in the USA. director Christopher Wray described espionageSpying. from China as the "greatest long-term threat" to the US economy.

Many lament that it has got to this point. China, regarded as one of the cradles of civilisation, is responsible for some of humanity's earliest innovations. Now, it may become a barrier to new ones.

Yes: This is clearly a strategy to inhibit other countries from developing technology to rival China's new inventions. Some fear it is a part of its plan to hold humanity back for China's own profit.

No: Many Western ideas about Chinese espionage and sabotageDeliberately ruin, destroy or obstruct something - especially to further your own ambitions. are completely overblown. We should not let paranoiaThe belief, often with no solid basis, that you are being harassed, betrayed or persecuted by others. over China's plans disrupt our rational thinking.

Or... World progress is about collaborationWorking together., and our failure to collaborate is a global problem that we are all responsible for. We have made progress into an economic competition rather than a collective and sacred historic goal.