The raven and the tower: an omen returns

Are omens useful? As the queen of the ravens vanishes, a prophecy foretells the end of the United Kingdom. Some call this fantasy, but others say there is wisdom in listening to the birds. The royal ravenmaster has some ominous news. Christopher Skaife is in charge of the eight ravens that live in the Tower of London. Every morning he lets them out to roam the castle grounds. With their trimmed wings, they can’t go far. But just before Christmas, only seven returned. Merlina, the “undisputed ruler of the roost”, had vanished. Skaife says: “I do fear that she is not with us any more.” It is sad news for the ravenmaster and his unkindness of ravens, but it is also an ill omen for the country. A prophecy warns that when fewer than six ravens live at the Tower, disaster will strike and the kingdom will fall. The last time their number fell this low was during the Blitz. It may sound far-fetched, but seeing omens in the behaviour of birds is a widespread belief. A major survey found 123 different cultures use 498 species to predict the future – from the early arrival of cuckoos in Wales promising a plentiful harvest, to the black-faced babblers of the Kalahari, who lead southern African hunters to their antelope prey. The Romans, in particular, took divination extremely seriously. They employed specialised priests called augers, who read the will of the gods in the calls, movements and flight patterns of birds. The Senate considered these readings closely before any major decision, such as making new laws, declaring war or calling elections. In the ancient world, anything strange or unexplained could be an omen. Comets, eclipses, earthquakes and blood rain were all signs of divine anger. And ignoring an omen could be deadly. According to the historian Suetonius, a soothsayer foresaw Julius Ceasar’s death before the end of the Ides of March. Caesar refused to leave Rome and was killed in the Senate. Others have followed a good omen to victory. In 1066, Halley’s Comet appeared in the sky, a “wonderful sign from heaven” that the Duke of Normandy would conquer the English. The famous Bayeux Tapestry includes the first known picture of the comet, which is visible every 75-76 years. In 1222 it inspired another conqueror, Ghengis Khan, to head west and invade Europe. The scientifically-minded say these are just coincidences. But research shows that people “who think of themselves as lucky actually are lucky,” says psychologist Mike Aitken, “because they are more willing to take advantage of opportunities." The modern equivalent of ancient omens could be computer models, argues historian Esther Eidinow. Just like the riddles of the Greek oracle, computer forecasts of the economy or climate need to be interpreted. Eidinow says: “None of us knows how the future will develop and no model can tell us exactly.” But what about Merlina the raven? Her disappearance may not mean the fall of the UK, but ethnobiologist Felice Wyndham says the idea of fortune-telling birds is rooted in an ancient awareness of our environment. Migratory birds like the cuckoo are affected by changing weather patterns, and we really can use them to predict the future. Are omens useful? Bird’s eye view Some say, of course not. Omens were common in the ancient world because people did not understand natural phenomena and reached for supernatural explanations. Trusting in good omens can lead to foolish choices; believing in bad ones can paralyse us with fear and anxiety. Instead, we should look at scientific evidence to make decisions. Others say we should listen to the world around us. Omens are not about ignoring the evidence, but widening our awareness to include the wisdom of the birds and their environment. Trusting our instincts in this way allows us to avoid dangers and take chances, without wasting time overthinking every decision. KeywordsThe Blitz - The aerial bombardment of the British Isles by the German Luftwaffe during the first part of World War 2.