There are 100,000 Russian soldiers on the border with UkraineA country in Eastern Europe. It was invaded by Russia in February 2022. . On the other side, desperate civilians, some well into their 50s, are training as volunteers to defend their country in the event of a lightning attack on the capital of KyivThe capital of Ukraine., just 380km from the border. This is Europe's next war zone.

NATO countries have promised aid to Ukraine, but they are divided over their response. Many think that Russia is bluffing - that it does not truly want to take on the USA in a war. As Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas said on Monday, "The biggest deterrence to Russia is an American flag." 

But others are less sure. Russia might bet that the USA will not be willing to commit to a war. The Russian army is modern and well-trained. And it is on familiar terrain. It could inflict serious damage on any American force.

Certainly, Western powers would prefer a diplomaticNon-violent peacekeeping. Diplomatic means keeping good relations between the governments of different countries. solution to the crisis. But to get that, they need to work out what Vladimir Putin wants.

Putin is unlike most Western leaders. He has built up a reputation as a scrappy street fighter. He lets it be known that he is prepared to fight harder than his opponents. He never blinks first in a confrontation.

But he is also a cold, calculating, ruthless thinker. This is partly because of his autocratic style of rule. He has been in power for the last two decades, and his grip on Russian politics means this is unlikely to change. That means he always needs to be thinking about the longer term.

Putin spent his early years in the KGBGovernment department of the Soviet Union, which translates as the Committee for State Security. It was responsible for intelligence operations, carrying out a role similar to that of the CIA.. He loves ice hockey: the perfect combination of grace and violence. And he is known for his skill in judo and samboA Russian martial art that comes in two forms. Sport sambo is similar to judo, while combat sambo, which is taught to Russian soldiers, is more like mixed martial arts.. Both are martial arts that teach their students to watch for an opponent's weaknesses and use their own strength against them.

Putin has often used his skills against Russia's international rivals, testing how they respond to his actions so that he can predict their next move, and call their bluff when necessary.

Very few Western leaders understand what motivates Putin, and so they are frequently blindsided by his decisions.

But some believe what makes Putin truly dangerous is the fact that he has a very limited understanding of Western leaders. Like many dictators, when his knowledge is incomplete he fills the gaps with plots and conspiracies.

The ideals of collective securityThe principle underpinning NATO that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members. and spreading democracy have been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for decades. They are not specifically intended to be a threat to Russia.

But Putin sees them as a Western plot. So when Russia's neighbours, with US encouragement, have democratised their governments and applied to join NATO, he has responded aggressively.

Whether or not war breaks out in the coming days, the West and Putin will keep finding themselves at loggerheads unless they can come to a better understanding of each other.

Yes: Putin is not a foolish thug. He is a thoughtful man with a keen strategic mind. He has worked with the West before and knows its weaknesses. We should not write him off.

No: We know all we need to know about Putin. When he feels threatened, he resorts to violence. He does not care that an invasion of Ukraine would cost thousands of lives. The only tactics he knows are bullying and brinkmanship. Understanding his traits will help us control the situation.

Or... We should use our understanding of Putin to come to a peaceful conclusion. We know that he might lash out when threatened. But we also know that as a strategic man, he will understand the risks in starting a war and taking on huge world powers. This is the key to a solution.