Is Russia on the brink of defeat? The Ukrainian army’s lightning-fast advance has thrown the invaders into disarray — and persuaded some commentators that Putin’s days are numbered.
'The greatest counter-offensive since WW2'
Is Russia on the brink of defeat? The Ukrainian army's lightning-fast advance has thrown the invaders into disarray - and persuaded some commentators that Putin's days are numbered.
On social media there was a sudden blizzard of videos from the front line. There were the citizens of BalakliyaA city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine. hugging Ukrainian soldiers after months of occupation. There were the military vehicles and piles of ammunition abandoned by the Russians. There was even a tank fleeing so fast that it crashed into a tree.
And there was the unexpected discovery by soldiers tearing down a propaganda poster: a poem by the Ukrainian writer Taras ShevchenkoA Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.. "Battle on - and win your battle!" it read. "God Himself will aid you."
The success of the counter-attack has amazed even Ukrainians. Since Wednesday, they have recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London - around 1,100 square miles.1 In 24 hours over the weekend they drove the enemy out of over 20 towns and villages. In some places they have reached the Russian border.2
They have gained more ground in the past few days than the enemy had in six months. Most significantly, they have forced the invaders to retreat from the cities of Izyum and Kupiansk, both railway hubs crucial for supplying troops.
"What really surprises us," says one Ukrainian commander,3 "is that the Russian troops are not fighting back." In some places, they dropped their rifles and fled on stolen bicycles. Streams of cars, assumed to belong to pro-Russian civilians, have headed for the border.
One expert, John Spencer of the Modern War Institute at West PointA name for the United States Military Academy., has called it "the greatest counter-offensive since World War Two". A Russian nationalist4 compared it to the Battle of Mukden - a defeat by Japan in 1905 which triggered an uprising against the TsarTitle given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power..
The Ukrainians have pulled off a classic piece of deception. For weeks they talked openly of a plan to liberate the key southern city of Kherson. Almost nightly, they attacked bridges over the River Dnipro, which were vital to the Russian supply lines.
In response, the Russians started moving troops south to defend Kherson, leaving Kharkiv in the north-east relatively open to attack. They did not believe that Ukraine had the resources to attack them in both places.
They could not have been more wrong. Ukraine did attack Kherson - but the main offensive was against Kharkiv. Caught off guard, the Russians there were quickly routed.
One commentator calls it "the most brilliant strategic manoeuvre... one that will be taught in military academies for years to come".
The timing was vital. Last Sunday, the invaders planned to hold a referendum in the occupied territory, to make it look as if the inhabitants wanted to be part of Russia. That did not happen.
Ukraine also needed to show before winter that victory was possible, and that the pain of the energy crisis caused by Putin was a price worth paying. Now its allies will be encouraged to keep on supplying weapons.
There is still the danger of a Russian counter-attack. "The war is not over," says Mick Ryan, an Australian general. "But perhaps the tide is finally turning."
<h5 class=" eplus-wrapper" id="question"><strong>Is Russia on the brink of defeat?</strong></h5>
Yes: Ukraine's success has been a devastating blow to the Russian army's morale. It is now torn between two fronts, one in the north and one in the south of Ukraine, and is struggling to defend both.
No: Russia can still inflict a huge amount of damage, as it has shown by rocket attacks on Kharkiv's water and power supplies. Worse still, it could resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.
Or... This war is already a defeat for all of us - a reckless waste not only of human life, but of money and technical resources that could have been focused on the overriding problem of climate change.
Balakliya - A city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine.
Taras Shevchenko - A Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.
West Point - A name for the United States Military Academy.
Tsar - Title given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power.
‘The greatest counter-offensive since WW2’

Glossary
Balakliya - A city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine.
Taras Shevchenko - A Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.
West Point - A name for the United States Military Academy.
Tsar - Title given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power.