Is Russia on the brink of defeat? The Ukrainian army’s lightning-fast advance has thrown the invaders into disarray – and persuaded some commentators that Putin’s days are numbered.
'The greatest counter-offensive since WW2'
Is Russia on the brink of defeat? The Ukrainian army's lightning-fast advance has thrown the invaders into disarray - and persuaded some commentators that Putin's days are numbered.
On social media there was a sudden blizzard of videos from the front line. There were the people in BalakliyaA city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine. hugging Ukrainian soldiers. There were the piles of ammunition abandoned by the Russians. There was even a tank fleeing so fast that it crashed into a tree.
And there was the surprise discovery by soldiers tearing down a Russian poster: a poem by the Ukrainian writer Taras ShevchenkoA Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.. "Battle on - and win your battle!" it read. "God Himself will aid you."
The success of the counter-attack has amazed even Ukrainians. Since Wednesday, they have recaptured an area more than twice the size of Greater London - around 1,100 square miles.1 In 24 hours over the weekend they drove the enemy out of over 20 towns and villages.
Most importantly, they have forced the Russians to retreat from the cities of Izyum and Kupiansk. Both are railway hubs crucial for supplying troops.
In some places, the Russians just dropped their rifles and fled on stolen bicycles.
One expert at West PointA name for the United States Military Academy. has called it "the greatest counter-offensive since World War Two." A Russian nationalist2 compared it to the Battle of Mukden - a defeat by Japan in 1905 which led to riots in Russia.
The Ukrainians had a brilliant plan. For weeks they talked openly about liberating the southern city of Kherson.
In response, the Russians started moving troops south, leaving Kharkiv in the northeast poorly defended. They did not believe that Ukraine could attack them in both places.
They could not have been more wrong. Ukraine did attack Kherson - but the main attack was on Kharkiv. Caught off guard, the Russians there were quickly routed.
One journalist calls it "the most brilliant strategic manoeuvre... one that will be taught in military academies for years to come."
The timing was vital. The Ukrainians needed to show before winter that victory was possible, so people in Europe relying on Russian gas would not pressure them into making peace. Now Western countries will be encouraged to keep on supplying weapons.
There is still the danger of a Russian counter-attack. "The war is not over," says Mick Ryan, an Australian general. "But perhaps the tide is finally turning."
Is Russia on the brink of defeat?
Yes: Ukraine's success has been a devastating blow to the Russian army's morale. It is now torn between two fronts, one in the north and one in the south of Ukraine, and it is struggling to defend both.
No: Russia can still inflict a huge amount of damage, as it has shown by rocket attacks on Kharkiv's water and power supplies. Worse still, it could resort to using tactical nuclear weapons.
Or... This war is already a defeat for all of us - a reckless waste not only of human life, but of money and technical resources that could have been focused on the overriding problem of climate change.
Keywords
Balakliya - A city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine.
Taras Shevchenko - A Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.
West Point - A name for the United States Military Academy.
‘The greatest counter-offensive since WW2’
Glossary
Balakliya - A city of 27,000 people in eastern Ukraine.
Taras Shevchenko - A Ukrainian poet and folklorist who died in 1861.
West Point - A name for the United States Military Academy.