Can premonitions be true? A new book unravels the amazing science behind a British psychiatrist who tried to predict the future by mining people’s visions and dreams.
The doctor who tried to predict the future
Can premonitions be true? A new book unravels the amazing science behind a British psychiatrist who tried to predict the future by mining people's visions and dreams.
Last week, Michigan man Austin Larson went missing while working in the woods. After his mother posted about the incident on Facebook, local psychic Kat Girard drew a blue circle on her phone map. Larson was found in the place she marked.
Girard is part of a long line of people who have claimed to predict the future. In Ancient Rome, haruspicesPlural of haruspex. The word combines the archaic Latin word for intestines haru and with suffix meaning to watch spec. would examine the offal of sacrificed animals to predict the future. The 16th-Century astrologer NostradamusA 16-century French astrologer and physician whose prophecies earned him fame both during and after his lifetime. These included being credited with predicting the rise of Adolf Hitler, the atomic bomb and the Kennedy Assassination. predicted that London would burn in "the year 66". The year 1666 brought the Great Fire.
The Premonitions Bureau, a new book by the journalist Sam Knight, tells the story of an English psychiatrist called John Barker. From 1966 to 1968, Barker collected and investigated predictions of the future.
Barker's interest began after the Aberfan disaster. Two nights before, a 10-year old called Eryl Mai Jones told her mother: "I dreamt I went to school and there was no school there. Something black had come down all over it."
Wondering whether these visions could be used to stop horrors, Barker advertised. He received 732 responses. All but 18 were wrong. Most of the right ones came from two Londoners. Between them they predicted fires, a train crash, a plane disaster.
Many are sceptical about such claims. Magic is not real. As James McConnachie says in New Scientist: "Premonitions aren't true. If you deal in them, you are deluded or a charlatanA person who falsely aims to have a certain skill or knowledge. It was first used in English in the 17th Century to describe someone who sells fake medicines, and descends from an Italian verb meaning to babble. ." They could stem from confirmation biasWhere people interpret past information in a way that supports what they want to believe..
We only tend to remember premonitions when they appear to contain truth. The thousands that were wrong are forgotten.
What appear to be premonitions might come from what we already know. In 1898, Morgan Robertson wrote a novel about an ocean liner called Titan. It hit an iceberg and sank, 14 years before the real-life Titanic. Morgan later denied that he had predicted the future. Rather, his expertise on ships allowed him to imagine something that might happen.
<h5 id="block-9f153f2d-68e6-4ad7-a9c3-73f28d231a72" class="block-editor-rich-text__editable block-editor-block-list__block wp-block wp-block-heading rich-text" role="document" aria-label="Block: Heading" data-block="9f153f2d-68e6-4ad7-a9c3-73f28d231a72" data-type="core/heading" data-title="Heading">Can premonitions be true?</h5>
Yes: For all the advances of science, we still know only a tiny amount about the workings of our minds and the world beyond our physical existence. New evidence might emerge that changes everything.
No: Some people might seem to have incredible predictive power in some situations. But this rests on a combination of scraps of knowledge and coincidence, rather than a real ability to sense the future
Or... It depends what you mean by a premonition. If you mean a prediction that defies all logic, no. But if you mean a prediction that seems to defy logic but may have a rational explanation, then yes.
Haruspices - Plural of haruspex. The word combines the archaic Latin word for intestines haru and with suffix meaning to watch spec.
Nostradamus - A 16-century French astrologer and physician whose prophecies earned him fame both during and after his lifetime. These included being credited with predicting the rise of Adolf Hitler, the atomic bomb and the Kennedy Assassination.
Charlatan - A person who falsely aims to have a certain skill or knowledge. It was first used in English in the 17th Century to describe someone who sells fake medicines, and descends from an Italian verb meaning to babble.
Confirmation bias - Where people interpret past information in a way that supports what they want to believe.
Psychokinesis - The ability to move things without touching them. As with telepathy, there is no good evidence that it exists.
Subatomic - Subatomic particles are those which make up an atom.
The doctor who tried to predict the future
Glossary
Haruspices - Plural of haruspex. The word combines the archaic Latin word for intestines haru and with suffix meaning to watch spec.
Nostradamus - A 16-century French astrologer and physician whose prophecies earned him fame both during and after his lifetime. These included being credited with predicting the rise of Adolf Hitler, the atomic bomb and the Kennedy Assassination.
Charlatan - A person who falsely aims to have a certain skill or knowledge. It was first used in English in the 17th Century to describe someone who sells fake medicines, and descends from an Italian verb meaning to babble.
Confirmation bias - Where people interpret past information in a way that supports what they want to believe.
Psychokinesis - The ability to move things without touching them. As with telepathy, there is no good evidence that it exists.
Subatomic - Subatomic particles are those which make up an atom.