Today, 10,000 troops will parade through Moscow, flanked by 129 pieces of military equipment. Crowds of civilians will cheer as the skies roar with aircraft.

On 9 May, Russia marks Victory Day. It celebrates its defeat of Nazi GermanyRussia saw the bloodiest and most intense fighting of the Second World War, resisting German invasion at the horrific cost of 27 million Russian lives. At the time the country was part of the communist Soviet Union, led by Joseph Stalin. in 1945. Under President Vladimir Putin it has become a centrepiece of the Russian calendar: a display of military bravado.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine has given this year's celebration significance. Ukrainians are braced for an onslaught as Putin looks to claim a victory in his speech.

"For Putin and for the empire he's trying to build, this is basically a symbolic day," said Ukrainian politician Alonya Shkrum. "We are expecting that there will be quite tough times here in KyivThe capital of Ukraine. and in OdesaAn important port city in southern Ukraine. and in MariupolA city in southern Ukraine that has been largely captured by Russia. The city's remaining defenders are besieged in a steelworks, which is currently perhaps the focal point of the conflict.."

There are speculations that Putin may use the speech to declare formallySo far Putin has not acknowledged that Russia is at war, describing the invasion instead as a "special military operation". that Russia is at war.

This is not the unambiguous victory speech Putin would have hoped to give. His war has not progressed as planned.

Instead of achieving a swift victory, Russia has been met with resistance. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed. Thousands of tanks have been destroyed and the flagship missile cruiser Moskva has been sunk.

Last week a spokesperson for the US government said that Russia had "already lost the war" according to their own objective of taking over Ukraine.

Some analysts go further: not only is the Russian invasion a failure, but it has roused their opponents into an unprecedented state of unity.

NATOThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members., the alliance that was formed to resist the Russian-dominated Soviet Union, had appeared to be in decline. Now it is expanding. Finland and Sweden are submitting applications this month after years of refusing. 

Thousands of British, French and American troops and tanks have been stationed all over Eastern Europe. State-of-the-art planes and air defences police the skies. Defence budgets are rocketing - even in Germany, which has maintained a relatively small military since World War Two.

Western sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade. are devastating the Russian economy and making life miserable for citizens.

"It flipped a switch when the Russians attacked Ukraine," said US Admiral Rob Bauer. Putin has succeeded in reshaping the geopoliticalGeo comes from the Greek for earth, so geopolitics is the political events and arrangements of the whole world. order, but not necessarily in the way he intended.

Yet today, Russia is holding a "victory" parade.

Yes: Putin has brought disaster upon himself. He has united the world in opposition to Russia and inflicted misery on his own people. This is a failure of historic proportions.

No: Russia has had some setbacks, but this war is far from over. Ukrainian cities remain under siege and Putin may have some frightening tricks still up his sleeve.

Or... The increased militarisation of the West is nothing to celebrate. It not only makes further wars more likely but also plays into Putin's own narrative that Russia is victimised and under threat. The only real victory would be lasting peace.